RISE, AND SHINE...

terryswails1
1 hour ago
4 min read

Temperatures will rise, and the skies will continue to shine as we remain on track for near record temperatures Friday and Saturday. The only knock will be the winds, right on through the weekend they will remain brisk, the price you pay for highs of 65 to 70.

Before we get too deep into the weather, we were fortunate to have clear skies to witness one of the best displays of the northern lights I can remember, and I'm getting long in the tooth. Many of you must have agreed, as I received nearly 100 stunning pictures, some from as far away as Colorado, Connecticut, and Florida.

This one was taken by Benjamin Root near Atkins, Iowa. On spaceweather.com, he said it was possibly the brightest he's ever seen them.

Colin Balayti of Dixon, Illinois sent me this colorful display.

This unique shot from Darcy Lynn Rice near Granger, Iowa

This one from Laurie Batterson Bunn of Oelwein, Iowa

A beauty from Mr. Mike Mudd of Bettendorf, Iowa

Another sweet shot from Linda Jean Sexton Fobian, an Iowa City product like me, enjoying the show there.

Standing tall near Chatham, Illinois by Troy Armstrong

I still have 90 other great shots from around the region which I wish I could feature. Thanks to everyone who took the time to send me images of this very special celestial event. Well done everyone!

According to astronomers, two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) struck Earth on Nov. 11th. The closely-spaced sequence of impacts produced a severe (G4) geomagnetic storm. Auroras spread across almost every US state with sightings as far south as Florida, California, Texas, Arizona, and Alabama.

Wednesday, a 3rd CME arrived. It struck Earth's magnetic field at approximately 1917 UTC on Nov. 12th. Astronomer's first impressions were that it was not strong enough to cause a repeat of Tuesday night's extreme aurora display. They downgraded the solar storm forecast from category G4(severe) to GE/G3(moderate/strong). That could still produce a scaled back version of northern lights overnight, but so far it's been relatively quiet and not looking likely locally. If you are wondering, strong solar storms are more than pretty lights in the sky, they can cause significant atmosphere impacts. Here's the difference between the (G4) event of Tuesday night vs the scaled back (G3) CME of forecast Wednesday night.

GIVE THE GIFT OF MY 5 STAR AIRBNB IN GALENA

Holiday and winter specials are now in effect through March. Let us help you set up a personalized gift certificate that's sure to create a lifetime of memories! Santa Claus approved. Call or text Carolyn at 563-676-3320 for details and our best pricing. https://www.littlewhitechurchgalena.com/

Getting back to our mundane weather pattern, there's little to be concerned about for roughly a week, with temperatures being the primary focus. Looking at the upper air pattern, La Niña conditions are present with a split flow evident at 500mb by this weekend

WHAT'S A SPLIT FLOW?

There are two main branches of the jet stream at 500mb. Cold air is delivered by the Polar Jet to the north. Moisture and warmth is controlled more by the sub-tropical jet to the south. Currently, a seasonably fast river of winds is taking shape near the Canadian border, enhanced by a tight baroclinic boundary created by cold air north and mild air to the south. The strength of the jet has forced cold air out of the nation and is blocking cold air from returning in any serious way for what could be up to 10 days.

Further south, the sub-tropical jet contains energy and will produce unsettled weather over the southwest. However, without help from the Polar jet, the bulk of the energy should remain over that area, cut off from the westerlies, where it will be forced to live off its own circulation. Some energy will try and escape from time to time, but is far enough west that minimal to light precipitation is about all that looks plausible, and I don't see any of that until Monday night or Tuesday.

In general, without much input from the polar jet, we get mild temperatures and with our last precipitation being Saturday, we'll go more than a week without anything before the next crack. It could be longer, with guidance not showing much potential until the 20-21st. I'm not a big fan of split flows, especially in the winter, as they typically produce rain if we get something far enough north to even impact us.

Anyway, we are going to be high dry and on the mild side of the ledger until we can get the polar jet more active and involved locally. Temperatures meantime will moderate a few more degrees Thursday into the range of 57 NE to 63 SW. One minor change is that models are forcing a cold front into the area by midday Saturday. The faster speed should make Friday warmer and Saturday a bit cooler, especially in the NW. Both days should end up pretty similar, with the highs close to 66 north and 72 far south. Saturday is the best chance of getting close to records, with them several degrees lower that day compared to Friday. Here's what the GFS shows for highs both days.

Friday

Saturday

It appears the cold front will pass dry with only some passing clouds. With it behind us, Sunday will be much cooler but still near to slightly above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Sunday

For those interested, I've been following what the EURO Weeklies have been showing for snow between Thanksgiving and roughly Christmas, about a 30-day period. Today, the mean shows this.