SAY HELLO TO MAY...

A storm system digging into the central Midwest Tuesday brought another round of active thunderstorms to parts of central and SW Iowa. Some strong storms with hail and gusty winds were the byproducts. As the storm clusters pushed east the storms split, one batch going north with the primary surface low, the second stronger round diving SE into the more unstable are in SE Iowa and northern Missouri. As a result, what was left to impact my region was in a weakening phase producing scattered showers and some thunderstorms, especially in SE Iowa and WC Illinois where some localized heavy rain occurred. Other spots ended up with little to nothing. Basically, it played out about as expected.

These are the storm reports from SPC through late night Tuesday. You can see the narrow plume of instability that focused strong storm activity from central Iowa into west Texas. At last count, 206 reports had been compiled, with hail the dominant form of severe weather.

The relatively small width of the clouds associated with the showers and storms looked like this as the system rolled through around sunset. Clearing since has rapidly spread east overnight.

The remainder of Wednesday, the region is briefly under a bubble of high pressure, which makes for a dry day with a fair amount of sunshine. It will be breezy though with west winds of 15-25. Welcome to MAY! A stronger system arrives Wednesday night and Thursday. More on that below.

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APRIL SHOWERS TURNING INTO A MAY RAIN...

The dry weather of Wednesday does not last long as another trough digs into the NC United States, part of an active wave train rolling across the country. The energy centered in Montana looks formidable Thursday.

Ahead of the disturbance, moisture quickly returns along with a warm front Wednesday night. That provides the forcing for the first wave of rain, which arrives by midnight in most areas. Showers and embedded thunderstorms could produce pockets of heavy rain but with the storms being elevated and CAPE low, severe weather should not be an issue. Lows will range from the low 50s north to near 60 south, closer to the warm front. Here's what SPC indicates for Wednesday's severe weather threat.

Thursday, the warm front inches north as low pressure tracks toward the NE tip of Iowa. That puts my northern counties close to the triple point Thursday evening with a cold front draped from the low through central Iowa and a warm front laid out west to east near HWY 20. Such a set-up can often lead to severe weather, but models do not show much capping. That argues for clouds and occasional showers and storms much of the day. Shear is also meager. If and where some decent instability (CAPE) can get established, mainly south of I-80, some strong storms are possible. Right now they appear widely scattered. SPC currently indicates only a marginal risk of severe weather.

Temperatures will likely range significantly Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s far north, to near 80 far south. With dew points in the 60s and water vapor greater than 1.25 inches, any storms are likely to be efficient rain producers until the cold front passes late Thursday night. As it stands now, here's what models are suggesting for rainfall Wednesday night through Thursday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The National Blend of Models.

Friday morning, the cold front races east and while temperatures won't be dramatically cooler, moisture is drastically cut with dew points going from the 60s to the 40s. The dry air should bring sunshine and highs of 70-75.

The next system Saturday has to buck all that dry air, and it appears its bark may be worse than its bite. Clouds could certainly enter our skies, especially in the afternoon. However, to get much in the way of rain, the forcing will need to be strong enough to off-set the dry air in place. I expect some showers, but they look rather spotty and light. I'm hoping that trend, which is strongly supported by the EURO holds the next 24–48 hours. Highs again should be around 70-75.

However it ends up, more dry air pours in behind the system Sunday, ensuring a dry end to the weekend. With mostly sunny skies, the dry air should once again warm nicely, with highs falling into the range of 70-75 for the third consecutive day.

With that, I call it a post and wish you all a happy hump day. Roll weather...TS