SHADES OF MARCH...

Most of us didn't appreciate the memory, but Tuesday's highs were right on the mark for late March. Here in Dubuque, we never got above 51 degrees after a low of 46. Slate gray skies and spotty showers and drizzle added to the gloom. As advertised, it was plum ugly, with readings 20-25 below normal from I-80 north!

While it wasn't heavy like it was Monday, more rain was added to the bucket Tuesday and this system turned into quite a rainfall event. The majority of my region, aside from the far northeast, picked up 2–4 inches of rain. It came at a time when it was very much needed. The largest report from the NWS in my area was 4.31 inches in Macomb.

Here's another perspective of 48 hour rainfall totals around Iowa from the Iowa Flood Center.

This is interesting! At the Moline International Airport, 3.50 inches (of the more than 4 inches measured) came on Monday the 20th. That is the largest (24hr) rainfall event to ever occur on any given day during the month of May. Congratulations Moline!

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A SLOW MOVER...

As you can see by way of the satellite animation, our storm is only slowly inching along in Ohio. Its counter-clockwise circulation will pivot another lobe of energy in from the northeast Thursday. That should provide more clouds that last through at least the morning hours.

There is some hope that clouds will break out and decrease from the north in the afternoon as the vorticity passes. The dry air that should do it shows up as blue dropping south out of the upper Midwest on this simulated water vapor imagery.

You can see by the low cloud cover percentage how the north is projected to clear out by early evening.

The leading edge of the dry surge could however pop a few additional showers in the afternoon as it digs southeast as a back door cold front. By way of the simulated radar, you can see what develops is very much hit-and-miss. They should not last long and be light. The area south of HWY 30 has the bast chance of scaring up one of these spotty showers.

It will be another cool day with temperatures holding in the 50s, although if the sun pokes through soon enough in the north, that area may be warmer than the south with a few spots near 60.

That leads us to a much better day across the board Friday with a fair amount of sunshine, drier air, and no rain. Low dew points and the strong May sun should send temperatures well into the 60s for highs.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

The quality of our weekend will rest heavily on the strength of a high pressure that nudges into the Great Lakes from Canada. It will provide E/SE winds and potentially act as a block and prevent deep (rain producing) moisture from returning over the holiday period. The EURO has been seeing that potential for a couple of days, while the GFS is less assertive with the high. As a result, the EURO has most of the holiday weekend dry, outside a stray show in the south Memorial Day. It's also warmer, which makes sense with highs mid to upper 60s. Here's what it depicts for rainfall through Monday.

The GFS kicks up a few showers in the south Friday night, but they are gone by daybreak and Saturday is indicated as a dry day. After that, a stronger disturbance is shown (as was the case yesterday) attached to the baroclinic boundary and its moisture to the southwest. It advects some of that into the region Sunday, making for a very cool and at times wet day with highs only in the mid 50s, entirely different from what the EURO indicates. Some lingering showers are also shown Memorial Day, mainly early. Highs of near 60 are indicated. As for rain, you can see a significant difference with the GFS showing this for amounts, most of which falls Sunday.

While I can't say yet with full certainty, I like the EURO's idea of dry weather Saturday, Sunday, and most of Monday. This is based on the dry low level air delivered by the high over the Great Lakes. It may also be that significant convection to the south in Missouri limits moisture that would otherwise be available for rain. Once again, it would not take much of a shift to get some rain into at least the south on Sunday, so keep in mind adjustments to the forecast are possible. That said, the GFS has shown a southward trend more in line with the EURO, which is a positive. I hate to hedge on a holiday, but sometimes it's worth it when so many of you have plans. Just keep rooting for that EURO to win out, leaving us high and dry for as long as possible! Roll weather...TS