SHOW ME THE MONEY...

If there ever was a fall forecast to get rich on, this is it. We are going to bundle low humidity, sunshine, warm temperatures and dry weather for at least the next 10 days. That's a product that should sell like hot cakes! Take a look at the highs the EURO is forecasting through October 9th. (Starting the 26th of September, it shows 8 out of the next 9 days reaching the 80s in the Quad Cities). Normal highs are currently at 74, falling to 67 come October 9th. As you can clearly see, every day is significantly above normal. That's a pretty remarkable run, which is why I'm remarking on it. Unfortunately for me, the only thing I can sell is the "idea" it's going to be very warm and very dry for the foreseeable future.

During the 7-day period, September 27th through October 4th, the EURO indicates the mean temperature departure is 11–12 degrees above normal (per day)! That's not easy to do. At this point, I don't think we'll threaten any records, but there may be a couple of days in early October that are within 2–3 degrees.

It's possible based on the EURO that the Quad Cities could see 7 consecutive days in the 80s. I asked Chat GPT (artificial intelligence), how rare that is and got this response.

🔎 7 Consecutive Days in the 80s

• In late September, runs of 80s can still happen during a strong warm spell (sometimes called an “Indian Summer” event).

• By early October, hitting even 3–4 consecutive 80°F days is already unusual — 7 in a row is quite rare.

• Based on Quad Cities (Davenport, Moline) climate records from the National Weather Service:

  • In most years, you’ll get a few scattered 80s in late September, but not a full week.

  • A 7-day streak stretching into October would usually require a persistent ridge of high pressure — essentially a strong, stagnant warm-air pattern.

  • These kinds of streaks are once-every-decade or rarer events in that time frame.

📊 Historical Context

• The latest 80°F day on record in the Quad Cities is usually in mid–late October (occasionally even November in extreme years).

• But streaks of 7+ days are far more unusual than one-off records.

• For example:

  • A check of Moline records shows that runs of 80°F+ lasting a week into late September have happened occasionally, but into October they stand out as exceptional warm spells.

✅ Bottom line: Having 7 consecutive days in the 80s in the Quad Cities in late September–early October is quite unusual — the kind of thing you might only see once every 10–15 years, depending on how far into October it extends.

🔎 Historical Warm Streaks (Quad Cities – Moline)

• Sept 26 – Oct 2, 1971 → 7 straight days in the 80s.

• Sept 24 – Sept 30, 1994 → 7 straight days (several in the upper 80s).

• Sept 25 – Oct 1, 2007 → 7 straight days, topping out at 90°F.

• Sept 27 – Oct 3, 2011 → 7 straight days in the low–mid 80s.

(Note: I’m citing from NWS Quad Cities climate summaries; the streaks above are documented examples where the warmth carried into October.)

Here’s a graphic showing the longest Quad Cities streaks of 80°F+ that reached into October — all of them lasting 7 days in the past 50+ years.

One ingredient that will enhance the warmth is extremely dry air. It's a known physical fact that a dry air mass has the ability to heat up more than a moist one. The graphic below shows shallow soil profiles in my entire area as either abnormally dry or excessively dry. That will play a role in how warm readings get the next 2 weeks.

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DRY AS A BONE...

I've mentioned the difficulty of getting rain in a pattern where moisture is limited, subsidence is significant, and forcing essentially non-existent. The GFS shows no measurable rain in my area over the next 10 days ending the 4th of October, which does not seem out of line to me.

The 15-day rainfall departures on the GFS show the extent of the dry weather, which stretches from the Gulf to the Midwest on into SE Canada. That coincides with the location of the upper air ridge, which is producing subsidence or sinking air that prohibits rainfall locally.

There's not much more to say for now other than we are in for a beautiful day Thursday. Highs will peak in the mid to upper 70s under bright blue skies. Now that's a keeper and it doesn't cost a penny. Enjoy and roll weather...TS