SIGNS OF HOPE ON THE DISTANT HORIZON...

ONLY 84 COPIES LEFT:

A SECOND PRINTING OF MY NEW BOOK IS ON THE WAY...

NEW COPIES OF DERECHO 911, IOWA'S INLAND HURRICANE ARE AVAILABLE. Around Christmas we sold the last of the 1500 copies of our book on this historic thunderstorm, the most damaging in U.S. history. Due to continued demand we ordered a limited number of 250 for those of you interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event. Books are selling fast so don't miss this opportunity to own the weather story of a generation. You can get yours at derechobook.com


I ordered one of your Derecho books about the storm in Cedar Rapids, IA back in December. I love it! I had also bought one that the Cedar Rapids Gazette sold. Your book by far is so much better, you have a lot more pictures and it just tells more of the story. Thank you for putting a wonderful keepsake together! Do you have any left? If so can you tell me how to get at least one more.

Thank you so much! Penny Brecke


ANOTHER ROUND OF FLUFF


Another day, another round of snow and cold on the house thanks to mother nature. For some perspective on this recent run of winter weather, I'm turning to a graphic posted by the Iowa Mesonet. It shows how the NWS in Des Moines has issued 19 different warnings or advisories since January 25th. That's more than one per day. They include a blizzard warning, three winter storm watches, 2 winter storm warnings, six winter weather advisories, and a number of wind chill advisories. Other surrounding NWS offices have been just as busy!


Thursday, the latest batch of snow (as expected) coated the northern half of the area. A few spots between Waterloo and Cedar Rapids picked up 3-4" of fresh fluff.

That's all pushed east and clouds have broken or cleared allowing temperatures to go well below zero NW of the Quad Cities. Readings in the single digits are likely elsewhere to start the day. There will be enough wind to produce some cutting wind chills and at the time of this post wind chill advisories are out until noon from the Quad Cities west.

The hi-res HRRR shows this for temperatures at 7:00am Friday.

The accompanying wind chills at the same time. Some as low as 30 below in the NW

The next order of business is more snow for Friday night and Saturday. The region will be situated on the right entrance region of the jet. That will drive the forcing or ascent to squeeze out more high ratio snow. However, models have come down on total moisture indicating most areas will see water equivalent of less than 1/10th of an inch. Normally that would be an inch or less of snow with 10:1 ratios. However, in this case with readings in the single digits ratios will be greater than 20:1 raising the potential that some spots could see 2 to perhaps 3", especially where forcing is maximized and more banded. Overall, a general 1-2" range should cover this event. Here's the official NWS snowfall forecast.

Here's what the latest models indicate. They have come down on QPF so the NWS high end ranges appear to be unlikely in most areas.


The 3k NAM

The 12K NAM

The HRRR

There has also been a trend on models to be a bit more phased with a system Monday night and Tuesday and that could swing a fast moving band of snow into parts of my area. The area east of the Mississippi is most susceptible although the EURO gets it well into the eastern half of Iowa. There's low confidence on how this plays out right now. However, I suspect the EURO is too far west and I think most of the impacts will be east of the river. This is the EURO surface depiction Monday night. Questionable...

I will also point out that while temperatures will be quite cold the next week, the EURO is not as extreme as the GFS. This battle between the two has been going on for several days and as I've been indicating, I think the EURO has the right idea. This difference was most noticeable on the nighttime lows where the GFS has been a good 5 to 15 degrees colder. There may be a couple nights the next 7 days where we get enough clearing to see 15-20 below, although those odds have steadily gone down the past few days. Fingers crossed. Whatever happens, even the warmer EURO is not pretty with temperatures the next week averaging 24-28 degrees below normal per day...coldest at the beginning of the period.

I do see a break in the pattern that many of you are looking for next weekend and I'll have more on the signs of hope in my next post. For now, it's steady as she goes. Happy Friday and roll weather...TS

ARCHIVED POSTS