- Dec 2, 2020

SO MUCH FOR MY FENCE...

A BEAST FOR THE EAST

The last 24 hours were relatively pleasant ones in Iowa but up here in Maine it's been another story. A very intense cyclone spun up through New York state bringing heavy rain, extreme winds, and very warm temperatures. Here's the giant storm as it makes its way into Canada and occludes. Snow is falling in the cold sector from Tennessee to the eastern Lakes.

Here in coastal Maine powerful southerly winds reached 60 mph and produced nearly 100,000 power outages. At my place I lost a big branch on a maple and a 20 foot section of a wooden fence in my backyard was blown down. Nimbus (my dog), nearly escaped through the gap but thought better of it. I was one of the more fortunate ones as other homes looked like this after trees came tumbling down. Reminded me a bit of this summers derecho back home.

WARMEST WINTER DAY EVER IN CARIBOU, MAINE, I WAS THERE TO FEEL IT.

The high winds also allowed the temperature in Caribou, Maine to reach 61 today. That is the highest reading ever for what is considered meteorological winter (the period Dec through February). For even more perspective, it literally annihilated the daily record for December 1st of 48 by 13 degrees! That is absolutely insane. Caribou usually sees about 110" of snow each winter. The tough winter's were a big reason why I moved to Maine. So far no snow or any sign of winter to date here. That totally figures, snow and I despite my best efforts just don't coincide.

Oh, and by the way we had nearly 3 inches of rain along with the wind and warmth. Had that been snow, we would have been pushing 30 inches. If's and buts, close but no cigar.

24 DAYS UNTIL CHRISTMAS, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?

There's still time to get my new book Derecho 911, Iowa's Inland Hurricane. Order by December 15th and get yours by Christmas. It's a thoughtful gift from Santa that will be appreciated by that hard to buy for individual. The book is coffee table style and color with more than 100 pictures, images, and graphics that I guarantee is entertaining, well researched, and very informative. For more info or to obtain your autographed copy please click on derechobook.com

QUIET WEATHER AHEAD...

The next 7-10 days look very quiet from the standpoint of storms. The jet will be in northwest flow and the central Midwest dominated by ridging. This limits moisture and keeps the mean storm track safely to the north or south. Temperatures are likely to average near to a bit above normal through December 10th. Here's what the EURO and GFS show for total precipitation the next 10 days. Yuk.

The EURO

The GFS

WHITE CHRISTMAS WATCH

With Christmas just over 3 weeks away I'm starting a feature called white Christmas Watch. I will try to put the ensembles of the EURO, GFS, and CANADIAN GEM up on a regular basis to give you an idea of what the models are showing. I do want to stress these are absolutely NOT forecasts and are not intended to be taken as such. Ensembles are an average of numerous solutions, some with more snow and often others with none at all. However, the average gives forecasters an idea of where trends are heading. When all three models are showing 6 or more inches in a given area that is a strong trend and one that probably has merit. 1-2" is low end and nothing to bank on. Just wanted you to see what I see behind the scenes and thought you might find it fun to watch as arm chair quarterbacks. There's a multitude of other factors that must be considered. Alright then, here you go with output that extends out to roughly Dec. 16th

The EURO ensemble (51 member solutions)