SOGGY EASTER EGGS...

Before I get into the Easter Sunday storm and the potential for rain soaked eggs, here's a little recap on a small but dynamic severe weather event to our west Thursday night. Two powerful, long-lived supercells tracked across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa during the afternoon and evening hours of April 17th. The storms produced widespread damaging hail up to 4 inches in diameter (baseball to softball size), wind gusts greater than 85 mph, and multiple tornadoes.

While the Iowa tornadoes have not been classified yet, one of the twisters in SE Nebraska near Omaha, came in with 140 mph winds, which classified it as a violent EF3 storm. One of the Iowa supercells promoted the NWS to issue a Tornado Emergency for Essex, IA, which is just northeast of Shenandoah. These are a special class of Tornado Warnings indicating a known significant life-threatening tornado is headed for a populated base. Here's the wedge tornado as it narrowly missed Essex.

Thursday evening, I captured this TVS (tornado vortex signature) of the intense circulation as it moved northeast of Essex. The radar is in velocity mode, which allows us to see the movement of rain, hail, or debris towards and away from the circulation. Greens are inbound, yellows and reds outbound. This gives us a clear idea of where the tornado is situated.

Below, you can see the two potent discrete supercells over southwest Iowa on traditional reflectivity mode. Even without the velocity scan activated, you can see the classic hook signatures that are a tip off that a tornado may be on the ground. However, you do not have the added insight of the strength and location of the tornado that the velocity tool provides. Doppler radar is a game changer when it comes to early warnings.

Here you can see the tracks and warnings associated with the two supercells as they tracked out of Nebraska into southwest Iowa before weakening in a more stable environment further east.

Austin Wagner sent me this picture of hailstones he encountered near Underwood, Iowa Thursday. These will do a number on your car and its windshield. Thanks, Mr. Wagner.

By the way, the tornado emergency (PDS) warning for Essex was only one of 18 that have been issued for the region shown below since 1999. Fortunately, they are rarely issued, but if one is, and you find yourself in the warning, it's the real deal and your life depends on taking the proper actions. The data was provided by the Iowa Mesonet.

At this point in the year, 2025 is right on par with 2011 as one of the most active years for tornadoes over the past 24 years. The total count of 543 twisters is far above the average of 354.

These are all the severe weather reports so far this year. The peak season doesn't even begin locally for another month and generally lasts through mid-June. If this is any indication of what's to come, stormy times may lay ahead.

Additionally, while my area should avoid the worst of the next round of severe storms, SPC does already have an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) issued for NE Missouri. The slight risk just catches the SE tip of Iowa and a bit of WC Illinois. This is the next storm to impact the region, Easter Sunday. Let's dig in.

Saturday, while being a dry day, does not look to be anything to write home about. Low level moisture will continue to be prevalent, which at the very least results in considerable high cloud cover. NE winds and the lack of full on sunshine will not be good for warming, which means highs should be cool in the upper 50s north to low 60s south. After highs near 80 in the SE Friday, that implies temperatures 15–25 degrees cooler than what was found just 24 hours earlier from eastern Iowa into northern Illinois. At least it will be dry.

Saturday night attention turns to the developing storm that barrels into the region Easter Sunday. A stout mid-level disturbance will provide the forcing for showers and storms to sweep across the area during the day. This animation shows the 500mb energy making the bend on its way to Iowa Sunday night.

Sunday evening, the 500mb low is getting set to enter SE Iowa.

By that time it's tapped into gulf moisture, as evidenced by water vapor (PWATS) that's shown as high as 1.8" near Burlington, that's over 95% of climatology for April 20th.

The attendant surface low and mid level jet of 70kts+ will produce a significant stratiform rain ahead of an advancing warm front that could produce well over an inch of rain in spots. One thing we don't have in our favor is warm air and that limits instability and while embedded thunderstorms are possible, about the only area that could see a strong to severe storms would be the far southeast Sunday evening near the triple point. While there won't be much CAPE (instability), shear will be significant. Sometimes these low CAPE high shear environments can cause some issues. We will need to watch the mesocale details unfold Sunday to measure the eventual threat in the southeast. The GFS shows an intense band of rain and thunderstorms sweeping through eastern Iowa Sunday evening.

The rain itself is expected to develop in the far south Sunday morning, advance north of I-80 by noon, and then push into the north during the afternoon. The more substantial amounts should fall during the late afternoon and evening. Most of the heavier rains end by midnight, when a cold front sweeps drier air east across the region. This is what guidance is indicating for rain through Sunday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

Temperatures much of the day Sunday will hold in the mid 40s north, with readings in the south eventually pushing into the 50s as the warm front edges closer in the afternoon. At some point readings will approach 50 in the north late Sunday evening with low 60s likely in the south as the warm front does its thing. That ends by morning with colder air diving in on the backside of the storm. Fortunately, it won't be that much cooler as readings remain in the 50s Monday and clouds gradually decrease during the afternoon.

That set's us up for warmer weather Tuesday, with highs of 70-75, but there is a chance of a late day or evening shower or thunderstorm. That's where things stand heading into Saturday. Thanks for checking in and here's to a terrific weekend despite the less than ideal conditions that could produce some soggy Easter eggs. Roll weather...TS.