SOME LOVE FROM THE EURO

 A SPECIAL MESSAGE, LET'S GET IT DONE

I would like to thank the 294 amazing people who have stepped up to the plate and made a donation to fund the site through this December. In the past year, TSwails had over 600,000 sessions, which breaks down to less than 1 donation per session. If you do not find value in the site or don't have the funds, I understand and still welcome you with open arms. For those of you here daily, who gain knowledge, or make financial decisions based on the information, I ask that you make a reasonable contribution. Every little bit helps. After much deliberation, I've decided that due to the daily commitment of time, money, and hard work, this will be the last year for the site if I can't reach my financial goal. I'm 82 percent there. The future depends on you. Thank you for your consideration and support the past 13 years. T. Swails

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HAPPY VALENTINE'S DAY

The love you give is equal to the love you get. SO BROTHERS AND SISTERS, GIVE ALL YOU GOT!

LOVE FROM THE EURO?

Speaking of love, the new EURO is giving us a little with a system it tries to develop next Thursday night. due to the distance between now and then some important details are still to be determined. That said, the 51 ensemble members of the EURO show clustering over EC Kansas Thursday morning.

By Thursday evening the lower pressures are centered over WC Illinois indicating a track south of the area through northeast Missouri.

At 500mb there is even a closed circulation over SW Iowa providing some decent forcing.

Moisture is trying to wrap into the center of the circulation as shown in the integrated water vapor transport product.

The gulf is finally opening up with precipitable water vapor up to 1" reaching SE Missouri.

It will be a race against time to get much ingested locally before the system gets here but there will be more than we've been able to tap with recent systems. As such, it appears rain should develop Thursday which could mix with or change to snow in the NW before precipitation shuts down Friday.

The operational model is further NW than the ensembles and in the end could be right. However, the majority of the 51 ensemble members at this distance are further southeast, which would be important for more in the way of both precipitation and snow. It's too early to know. However, something seems to be cooking and if nothing else the odds of more than a dollop are improving. The operational EURO surface depiction looks like this next Thursday evening.

Temperatures will turn significantly colder for next weekend behind the system.

Naturally, the GFS is not as amplified and doesn't depict much in the way of precipitation and is more of a nothing burger. The way our luck has been running that is concerning, but I have been thinking for a week that the pattern was ripe for some energy to amplify coming out of the western trough and as a result I see support for what the EURO is showing. Time will tell.

Make it a "lovely" day and roll weather....TS ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 82% to my goal.

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