SOME PAIN FOR A BIG GAIN...
We've been beating the point like a a stubborn mule but this spring has really sucked eggs. The map below presents estimated climate district ranks for average temperature during April. Any value over 120 would indicate a top ten coldest with a number of districts shown in the top five or even higher. All of my area is in the top ten and from the Quad Cities north and west, its top 3 to top 5!
Going back to March 1st, Cedar Rapids has had only 3 out of 65 days with highs of 70 or above. So far highs in May have not gotten out of the 50s. This is difficult to do considering the days start getting shorter in just over 6 weeks. Seriously, the sun is potent right now if you can just get it to shine without a north wind...a huge challenge recently.
So, who wouldn't be thrilled to see a little warm weather, perhaps even a summer preview? I'm all in and so are the models. In a stunning reversal of fortunes we are going to see a major warm-up and it starts next Monday. Look what the EURO is showing for temperatures the next 10 days in the Quad Cities. It even shows a 91, probably a few degrees to warm. Anyway, I like the looks of that party.
Just as good, the GFS has is coming to the same party and has very similar numbers as the EURO
The Texas Panhandle and SW Oklahoma are really going to cook, a region where pronounced drought is found.
That dry air can really heat up as evidenced by highs on the EURO as warm as 106 degrees in that area, lots of 100+ readings over western Texas.
The interesting thing about our warmth is not the dryness of the air, it's how moist it is. The EURO indicates dew points reaching the mid to upper 70s Tuesday. That's the first time all year we've been above the low 60s.
Combine that water vapor with a high near 90 and the heat index is shown reaching 100 in southeast Iowa. That's how it will feel and again that's probably a bit too high. But to the point, it will be worse here that in Texas where those 106 degree highs are projected. That's because dew points there are in the teens and low 20s. The old dry heat adage applies.
For sure we are in for a BIG change next week as summer punches the Midwest's ticket. It will be interesting to see if we get into any active thunderstorms. There is some extreme CAPE (instability) showing Tuesday. If we can blow the cap away that is an explosive set-up late Tuesday or Tuesday evening.
Sure enough the EURO does fire some storms in Minnesota Tuesday evening that could bleed into the area. Will need to watch that situation in coming days.
Before that transpires, we come under the influence of another big slow moving storm. There are discrepancies with regards to how far north its rain shield gets. The GFS keeps the heavier rains over my far southern counties and brings little precipitation to the north. The EURO and Canadian GEM are further north and that makes a big difference with higher totals areawide. I tend to agree with the more northerly solutions so I'm expecting heavier rain amounts to make it all the way into my northern counties. Here's the comparison of what the 3 models are suggesting.
The GFS (the lightest solution)
The EURO and GEM (heavier and most likely to occur).
Rain is expected to develop in my SW counties Thursday morning but it runs into some dry air and anything significant is unlikely to make it much past I-80 during the day. As the system gets better organized rain is likely to push northward Thursday night and could linger well into Friday. With the dreaded easterly wind component in play temperatures will remain below normal Thursday and Friday with highs ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s, coolest Friday where rain and clouds are more widespread,
The system departs Friday night and that sets us up for a fine Mother's Day weekend. Conditions look dry and seasonal leaving us with highs around 65 to 70.
Well, I think that's enough good news for now. In fact, it's almost too much of a good thing! Whatever, I'm tired of being cold and I for one will embrace next weeks summer preview. Have a solid day and roll weather...TS