SPOOKTACULAR, OR NOT...

Wednesday was a transition day as the storm that brought light to moderate rains spun off to the east. In the overall scheme of things, the rain that fell was useful, but far from what the doctor ordered due to the dryness of the past 2 months. The system's rain shield was a bear to forecast right up to the end. When it was all said and done, the highest amounts locally ended up north of I-80 where some place like Galena, Independence, and Center Point all had over 6/10ths of an inch. Further south, the tallies were closer to 2/10ths of an inch. Here's the Doppler estimates showing rain totals ending Wednesday morning. Notice the sharp cut-off to the rain band in Wisconsin and NE Illinois, where dry air ruled the roost.

The Satellite late Wednesday reveals the system pulling away, tugging dry seasonally cool air into the Midwest on its backside.

The next 3 days, the mean trough will remain over the east as the large system grinds a path forward. Here in the Midwest, a weak moisture starved disturbance will dive into the trough Friday and early Saturday. That will reinforce the cool air and keep temperatures fresh. Ahead of the disturbance Friday, readings will remain in the low to mid 50s. Behind it, highs may struggle to get out of the upper 40s to low 50s Friday and remain in the mid to upper 40s Saturday.

As shown above, the cold core of the disturbance will come directly overhead Friday and Saturday. That will serve to produce passing clouds and potentially enough instability to generate some light showers, especially across my northern counties. While it's a long shot with temperatures above freezing at the surface, readings a mile up will be a couple degrees below freezing. If any showers could linger into Friday evening or beyond (including Saturday morning), evaporative cooling could get a few wet snowflakes to the ground. The 3k NAM does show at least a trace of snow as far south as northern Iowa.

Anyway, trick or treaters beware, a creepy chill will descend on the region by sunset Friday evening. The best chances for any of the showers, which would be brief and light, comes late Friday afternoon into Saturday when the cold air aloft passes. The EURO and 3K NAM are the most aggressive with precipitation amounts, although still extremely light. Here's what they show through Saturday. The showers will be hit-and-miss, with lots of dry hours between them

The EURO

The 3K NAM

The GFS is much further north with its precipitation, despite being nearly identical on the placement of the upper air low and its energy. I think its solution is underdone. Here it is.

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HOW ABOUT SOME INDIAN SUMMER

After Saturday, the trough quickly breaks down and is replaced by building heights. That gets Sunday's highs out of the 40s and back into the low to mid 50s. That initiates a warming trend that will have most areas into the 60s as early as Monday.

If trends continue to hold, we should be in for a nice stretch of Indian Summer weather next week, that being multiple mild days, crisp nights, and abundant sunshine. To technically qualify, the extended period of pleasant conditions must come after a freeze, and we have all experienced that.

When I look at teleconnections, I'm reasonably confident we can achieve the expectations I outlined. First let's look at the MJO (Madden Julien Oscillation). It is shown on the EURO making a move from phase 5 into phase 6 the first week of November.

The 500mb height analog for phase 6 with a negative enso (La Niña) looks like this in November.

That is quite similar to what the deterministic EURO is showing with troughs over the NW and NE and high heights and ridging across the most of the nation November 9th. That is a strong teleconnection that favors warm, dry weather.

As one would expect, the EURO shows the period November 3rd through the 10th very much on the warm side compared to average. Highs during that 8-day period are shown, averaging 63 degrees with a maximum of 70 with 5-days in the 60s. The numbers will fluctuate at this distance and could end up being somewhat cooler. That said, chances are good that on average, readings will be well above normal.

On the right below, you can see how November temperature correlations look when the MJO is in phase 6 during the month of November...significantly above normal over most of the country. On the left, precipitation is typically below normal.

That strong zonal flow that's anticipated highly restricts moisture and keeps the storm track well to the north. Both the GFS and EURO show little if any precipitation the next 2 weeks. That keeps drought conditions going by building rainfall deficits of 1.00 to 1.25 inches over that 14 day stretch.

The GFS rain departures.

The EURO rain departures

If that's not enough proof for warm, dry conditions, the EPO (eastern Pacific Oscillation) is certainly on the positive side through November 13th limiting cold air from entering the pattern.

Just another weapon in the arsenal for warmth.

For those of you who like it on the colder side of the pillow, look what the EURO weeklies continue to do in late November. The control plunges the EPO deeply negative, which would produce a ridge over the Pacific NW Coast producing the opposite effect, opening the door for polar air and much colder conditions. This trend has been showing for 3 consecutive days, and we'll keep tabs on it going forward. It's a month away.

Meantime, we've got a pretty good day in store before a 2 day set-back just in time for Halloween. How spooktacular is that! Roll weather...TS