THE TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING UP

The entire state of Iowa is under an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect through at least Wednesday as the intense heat is here to stick around for much of the week. Air temperatures are forecast to climb into the low/mid 90s with heat indices pushing 105° to 110°. Heat exhaustion can hit you in 15 minutes of continued work outside or less, so please make sure you are all staying hydrated and taking breaks in the shade, or ideally air conditioned spaces.

Forecast air temperatures are projected to remain near 90s, to low 90s, through the weekend with some rather intense humidity in place as well. Of note as well, look at those low temperatures! Lows will be in the upper 70s which is important for livestock as they really cannot cool off overnight. Dangerous heat all around, and that is the main story going forward, but not the only story as we are also tracking some potential storms in the region.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

Monday through Wednesday there are formal risk areas by the Storm Prediction Center for the region, but the storm track as mentioned in yesterday's blog, likely remains just to the west/northwest. Thursday onward, however, that storm track does continue to creep closer to our area.

Overall, the storm potential is pretty limited this week despite the risk areas being in place. The capping is rather strong likely preventing widespread severe storm potential, however if a storm can form it would likely quickly go severe given the high instability in place.

Global models like the European continue to show storm potential over our area July 3 and 4 which may have some impacts to holiday festivities. I want to stress, given the pop-up thunderstorm nature much of this will likely be, high-resolution modeling will be more important in terms of forecasting the exact threat and potential of rain. Just know the potential is there late this week if you have outdoor plans. We will try and hone in as best as we can in the days ahead to get better timelines.

The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over our area July 3. If storms do erupt, they will have severe weather potential given the instability in place and they will likely produce locally very heavy rainfall given the high moisture content of the atmosphere. The reason I bring this up is for campers, if you are staying along creeks, streaks and rivers this weekend for the holiday, plan on having ways to get weather alerts like flood warnings. A NOAA Weather Radio is a great option. Water can rise very quickly with storms like this on waterways. Make sure you can get warnings and get to high ground quickly in the event of flash flooding.

Analogs continue to hint at hot temperatures into early next week as well with analogs in the 5-10° above normal range. Those probabilities of above-normal temperatures are well over 70% locally through at least July 10. July starting with quite a warm stretch! Stay cool...

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart