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The whisper of the wind, the buds on the branches, blue skies, birds singing, the days getting longer, the sun more intense. Yes, nature is waking up bringing with it our need to be outdoors and to breathe in the scent of spring. I don't know about you but I'm going to be hyperventilating when it all comes together over the next few days. I am ready. Ladies and gentleman, I present spring 2023.
In honor of the event, Donal Hord created this sculpture called Spring Stirring in 1947-1948. It was carved from black diorite and stands 46 inches tall. It was exhibited in 1949 at the Philadelphia Museum of Art’s Third Sculpture International. In 1964, Spring Stirring was given to the University of California’s Scripps Institute of Oceanography by Cecil and Ida Green where it resides today in San Diego. You have to be a deep introspective thinker to see spring in the sculpture but as I always say, spring is in the eye of the beholder. (Okay, I've never really said that) but I do think there's some truth to it.
Anyway, focusing on the weather at hand, there's unanimous opinion that above normal temperatures are in our future for much of the next two weeks. The Climate Prediction Center leads the way with its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks through that time frame.
Not surprisingly, model guidance supports such warmth with 10 day daily temperature departures that reflect the above normal regime across the upper Midwest in both the GFS and EURO April 8-18th.
This is the 500mb pattern that would deliver the spring like temperatures.
With the ridge over the Ohio Valley, the moisture transport necessary for meaningful precipitation remains to the west of my region across the Plains and northern reaches of the Upper Midwest. Assuming that trend holds, little if any rain is anticipated through the middle of April. That's good news for farmers who are itching to get into the fields in preparation for spring planting.
I will be interested to see if this is a trend that sticks and holds the rest of spring. The EURO seasonal precipitation outlook for April-June does indicate near to below normal rainfall from now through June 30th.
The EURO seasonal April-June does not show a strong signal either way for temperatures during that period indicating readings close to average. Not too hot and not too cold, just the way Goldielocks likes them!
In all honesty, this is the first time in about 3 months that I have seen the overall pattern so void of storms in the Midwest. as a forecaster I'm kind of at a loss as to what to say other than the break is long overdue. Now we wait to see if this is the new norm or if in time, the pattern reverts to a stormier look with the west coast trough and east coast ridge of the last few months. It's the fork in the road, do we go left or right? Only time will tell and I'm intrigued to figure out the answer.
Meantime, Spring has finally sprung. A mild dry Easter weekend with highs in the low 60s Saturday gives way to mid to upper 60s Easter Sunday. After that 70s find their way into the picture and if things go really well, we may approach 80 at some point late next week. All in favor of that say aye! Have a terrific Easter weekend and roll weather...TS