STEADY AS SHE GOES...
Despite minimal rain last week the latest drought index has not showed much change. Last weeks cool temperature kept evaporation levels low and that no doubt helped our cause. You can see the current conditions compared to last week on the first two lines of the chart on the right. It is concerning to see so much dryness going into the time of year where temperatures are peaking and rains become more scattered.
What you saw Friday is what you get Saturday as temperatures again peak near 90. Along with more sunshine will come tolerable dew points but the numbers will begin to inch up and we'll eventually get into the muggy stuff summer is known for Monday.
In fact, by that time water vapor is shown soaring to levels near 1.80" on the EURO. That will generate dew points in the low 70s which will get the sweat glands flowing, especially with temperatures remaining in the mid to perhaps upper 80s.
That will drive instability and CAPE, and while not exceptional it will be sufficient for widely scattered showers and storms once convective temperatures are reached in the afternoon hours. They will be of the hit and miss variety and will quickly wane in the evening as the sun sets.
Due to the fact there is no significant forcing or steering currents, these will be crawlers and if you get lucky enough to get under one of these slow moving creatures some nice downpours are possible. Unfortunately the general coverage will be 30 to 40 percent at best. Some of you will see rain, others not so much. Just about any day contains a small threat of rain Tuesday-Saturday of next weekend.
Even with multiple days with rain chances, the EURO is not impressed with amounts showing rainfall departures that look like this the next 15 days.
The area that will receive more than its share of rain will be the region from the Gulf Coast States through the Ohio Valley. Basically the regions in red.
The warm humid weather pattern we're getting into is expected to last through the coming week. Then a front passes next Saturday and the humid weather backs off and temperatures cool to pleasant levels. Father's Day looks nice and the weekend following that is even cooler in the 70s. Here's the GFS meteogram showing the cooling June 18-20th.
To tell you the truth, there's not much to talk about as our weather remains in an agreeable state. No sense waking a sleeping giant so I will silently sign off. Roll weather...TS