STEAM ENDS WITH A BANG...
A heavy dose of heat and humidity brought a steamy start to the weekend. Saturday promises to be another sizzler with a twist, the promise of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain by late afternoon or evening. The Storm Prediction Center has all of my area in a level 2 risk of 5 for severe storms.
While a few storms may bleed into my far northern counties Saturday morning, it appears coverage will be limited, with the majority of the action remaining even further north until mid to late afternoon. That would generate significant instability, with CAPE reaching 2,500 j/kg.
For CAPE to reach those levels, highs would need to hit the mid to upper 80s north and low to mid 90s south. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s, the gun would be loaded for strong late day storms.
It will also be a very sultry day, with heat index values nearing 100 in a number of spots before storms develop.
As for severe weather, shear of 30-40kts+ is available for supercell development before a linear mode and squall line forms. If winds can back near outflow boundaries and a weak triple point in NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin, there could be a short window for a couple tornadoes. With the high moisture levels, HP supercells (heavy precipitation producers) are likely with low LCL'S (cloud bases). The low cloud bases make it a bit easier for any mesocyclone circulation to reach the ground. The HRRR significant tornado product shows the area of interest at 6:00pm.
Mesoscale details will become clearer on this threat by late Saturday morning. Storms should be fairly progressive and much of the activity should be over in the NW in the evening and the SE shortly after midnight. This is a simulated radar of the storms lined up along the front around 7:00pm.
The other issue storms present is torrential rainfall. PWATS indicate water vapor exceeding 2:00 inches. The strong updrafts have the potential to dump 1-2 inch rains in an hour. Some brief flash flooding is possible in spots, but a steady movement should limit duration and training issues. The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for the area near and north of HWY 30 through Saturday evening. Additionally, a heat advisory for heat index values up to 100 is in effect for much of the region near and south of I-80.
Here's what models are indicating for rainfall. Notice, too, rains that missed my area to the NW Friday night combined with what falls Saturday, will create some excessive totals of 3–5 inches across northern Iowa into southern Minnesota and SW Wisconsin. More on that below.
The HRRR
The 3k NAM
The GFS
The EURO
The heavy rain further north, on top of substantial totals earlier in the week, is (or will) create widespread flooding in Minnesota. Some of that is now impacting northern Iowa. Significant rises on rivers like the Iowa, Wapsi, Maquoketa, and Cedar are likely and the same goes for the Mississippi, but it will lag behind the others regarding crests.
Fortunately, after Saturday night, we should see a couple of days without the threat of significant rains in the Midwest. In fact, we should lower temperatures Sunday with less in the way of humidity. Under mostly sunny skies, highs to close out the weekend will be in the range of 83-87 in most spots. A nice break.
Stay cool and, as always, roll weather....TS
WHY NOT SPEND SOME TIME AT MY PLACE IN GALENA
It's vacation season and there is no better place to visit than Galena and no better place to stay than my newly renovated AIRBNB, the Little White Church. We are located in the bluffs, just 5 miles from the 2nd largest tourism destination in Illinois. In fact, "Tourist Destination", rated Galena as the 2023 top place to visit in the entire Midwest.
Now is the best time to enjoy all there is to offer, and my 5-star AIRBNB is the perfect location to stay. Set in the rolling hills just outside of town, our completely renovated church is designed for you to unwind and relax.
Again, we are an AIRBNB Super host and can accommodate up to 8 guests. We've got cable, hi-speed WIFI, Sirius XM and a sparkling full kitchen. We are a home away from home and take great pride in cleanliness and comfort. All of our ratings have attained perfect 5-star status!
MAKE US AN OFFER...
What about pricing? Right now, we are able to offer you our best pricing ever. We have 3 nights for the price of 2 which, depending on the days, can save as much as $300-$400 dollars. If you book directly through us, you can also eliminate booking fees and taxes that the big chains charge. Cleaning fees are also drastically reduced. It all adds up to exceptional deals at a destination worth visiting. Let us work with you to find a time and price that suits you. Here's a link to some pictures. https://www.tswails.com/galena-airbnb
Carolyn and I will do all we can to make sure your stay is a memorable one. Please call or text Carolyn for more details and options and get a prime date while they are still available. Again, that's Carolyn at 563-676-3320.
Hope to see you soon,
Terry and Carolyn
7 GREAT REASONS TO VISIT GALENA
1. It’s Steeped In History
2. It’s Home To One Of The Best Main Streets In America
3. The Restaurants Are Amazing
4. There’s A Lot To Do Outdoors
5. You Don’t Have To Travel To The Mountains To Go Skiing
6. It’s A Great Place To Spend The Fourth Of July
7. Did I Mention The Shopping?