SUMMER MINUS THE SIZZLE

Officially, summer does not get underway for about 2 more weeks. But, for weatherheads like me and other meteorologists and climatologists, it started Sunday, June 1st. Why is that? In a nutshell, it's due to the fact astronomical summer can vary from 89 to 93 days due to the elliptical shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun. In other words, summer (and our other 3 seasons) don't begin or end on specific dates. The discrepancies in length and date, make it nearly impossible to consistently track climatology, To solve the problem, somebody came up with the idea of breaking the seasons down into simple three-month cycles based on the calendar and the annual temperature cycle. Thus, meteorological summer starts June 1st and ends August 31st, (the hottest months of the year). Makes sense if you ask me. For sure, it's much easier to compile records that are consistent.

This got me to thinking that in just 15 days, astronomical summer officially starts the 20th. That means the sun is as high in the sky as it gets, and beginning June 21st, the days start getting shorter, and we begin the long decline in sunshine that inevitably will lead to winter in December.

That harsh reality brought up another thought. Outside of a few days, we really haven't had much in the way of what I would call warm weather. Here in Dubuque, I looked up the number of 80 degree days we've had since April 1st and was surprised to see we've had only 7 highs in the 80s. 5 of those came consecutively way back in a stretch that lasted from May 11th to the 16th.

April

May

June

If you throw that 5 day stretch out the window, only 2 other days have managed to crack 80. April 28th and June 2nd, that's it! So here we are 2 weeks from the days getting shorter, and I'm thinking, dang summer will be over before it gets started. Will we ever get into those hazy, lazy, steam filled days of summer? Rest assured we will have a few, but I'm wondering if maybe this will be one of those years when consistently the worst of the heat is contained further west and south. The climatologists at NOAA are showing above normal temperatures over the entire nation, June through August. However, the odds of above normal readings locally are only about 33 to 40 percent. Chances of a hot summer are greatest over the west and southwest, at up to 70%.

What is obvious by the configuration of the temperatures is that NOAA anticipates a ridge over the southwest that would promote NW flow aloft here in the Midwest, with a sympathetic trough over the Great Lakes. Not only would that keep the heart of the heat further southwest, it would also lead to a lack of moisture leading to drier air, below normal precipitation, and less in the way of humid days. That is hinted at in NOAA's precipitation outlook. Personally, I could see it drier locally than the 50/50 odds NOAA shows for average summer rain.

What is interesting to me is that the temperature and precipitation outlooks of NOAA fit the pattern that's setting up this weekend. Look at this energetic bowling ball at 500mb digging into the Midwest Sunday. Rest assured, that does not look like a typical 500mb chart, June 9th.

What it does show is the presence of a western ridge, the trough over the lakes, and a heck of a NW flow. We could see some showers or storms later Saturday with warm air advection, and again Sunday when the cold front brings a bout of cold air advection. However, forcing is not exceptional and amounts look pretty scattered and generally light. The EURO shows this for rain totals Saturday and Sunday, with lots of dry hours in-between any showers. Most amounts are under 1/10th of an inch.

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FRISKY STUFF...

Once the cold core upper air energy drops into Wisconsin Sunday night 850 temperatures are shown dipping to 5 in NC Iowa. That's pretty frisky.

The bottom line is that the GFS does not show temperatures getting out of the 70s through Thursday of next week. Monday should be the coolest, when the cold air aloft could spin up some clouds and perhaps some brief hit-and-miss showers in the north. Highs that day are shown in the 60s from I-80 north.

Tuesday morning looks very fresh, with lows well into the 40s. No AC required.

Here's what the GFS meteogram shows for temperatures the next 13 days. 8 consecutive days in the 70s with a 67 for good measure in the Quad Cities. By this time we are into June 17th and half the month is gone. Where are you summer?

Oh, and by the way, precipitation is shown to be well below normal during this period.

This is all very reminiscent of the pattern we've seen for more than 2 months. If this does not break soon, this may be a version of what summer is like, although it's going to be warmer than what's coming the next 10 days.

Well, enough speculation and prognostication for now. Have a delightful day and watch out for that wildfire smoke. Roll weather...TS