THANKSGIVING WEEKEND BLIZZARDS
Snow is expected to accumulate across the area Sunday, resulting in the season's first round of wintry travel conditions. I'll have more on what you can expect regarding the amounts and impacts at the end of this blog....
THANKSGIVING WEEKEND BLIZZARDS
Before we get to that, I got to reminiscing about other November snowstorms, and it occurred to me that two major ones occurred on Thanksgiving weekends like this, one in 1985 and the other in 2018. Let's take a trip down memory lane and relive these epic events that have become all too rare in these times of warmer and rather snow free winters!
The Blizzard of 1985 (also known as the Snow Bowl Blizzard), November 29-December 1st.
The 1985 storm was a huge event for me while working at KDUB-TV in Dubuque early in my career. I remember eyeing the storm November 28th as data rolled in on the station's difax machine, the tool we used to obtain weather maps. The charts were slow and messy, but with computers still in their infancy, it was the only way to get information. Satellite images were also primitive, with poor resolution and images as much as 3 hours old before we received them.
I do recall being excited on Friday (the day before the storm) when models showed a track that was favorable for snow over all but far SE Iowa. I had been concerned the rain snow line would be an issue, but with Friday's new data, that was not a concern for Dubuque or points west. Winter storm warnings were issued and by Saturday evening the snow began to fall heavily. In a few hours we picked up 6 inches of snow and a bunch of us played tackle football on a golf course in the dark. Afterward, we came in and hung our wet socks and gloves on the fresh Christmas tree we had put up that day.
The snow kept falling in earnest through Sunday evening before tapering off. The winds were fierce and temperatures crashed Sunday night. Strong winds produced lots of blowing snow into Monday, especially in rural areas where many roads were closed, including I-80 in central Iowa. I shoveled the driveway 3 different times due to the heavy snow and large drifts. When the final numbers came in, Dubuque had set a record for an individual storm with 18.6 inches, and I was there to experience it. It was and still is the largest snowfall I have ever witnessed. I slept like a log that Sunday night.
1985 STORM SUMMARY FROM THE NWS DES MOINES...December 1, 1985:
A winter storm struck Iowa from late on November 29th through December 1st producing heavy snow across much of the state. A wide swath from southwest to northeast received 8 or more inches with many stations from around Guthrie Center east northeast to Waukon and Dubuque recording a foot or more of snow. In northeastern Iowa Decorah, Dorchester, and Waukon all set their single-day snowfall records with Dorchester reporting a remarkable 18.0 inches of snow in just 24 hours ending on the morning of the 2nd. Other reported three-day snowfall amounts included 13.5 inches at Charles City and Waterloo, 14.0 inches at Independence and Waukon, 14.8 inches at Decorah, 16.0 inches at Tripoli, 16.5 inches at Oelwein, 17.0 inches at Fayette, 18.6 inches at Dubuque, and 19.0 inches at Elkader and Iowa Falls. Winds gusted to 40 to 50 mph by December 1st, combining with bitterly cold air to produce wind chills of -40 to -60 and resulting in blowing and drifting of snow that brought travel to a standstill across much of Iowa.
THE SNOW BOWL IN GREEN BAY
The Green Bay Packers had more than 35,000 no-shows for a game played in 10 inches of snow against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that Sunday afternoon. Today, the game is famously known as the "snow bowl ".
The Blizzard of 2018, November 25th.
The 2018 storm is one that is painful for me to recount. I was the Chief Meteorologist at KGAN TV in Cedar Rapids at the time. From a meteorological standpoint, the system was well forecast and performed about as expected. What became challenging was forecasting the sharp cut-off line of the northern edge of the snow band. Cold dry air injecting into the system not only fueled it but led to some counties seeing no snow on their northern fringes while southern sections 30 miles away piled up 8–9 inches.
I was fully aware the cut-off was going to be close to Cedar Rapids, and my hope was to catch at least a couple inches of snow. In the end, I never saw so much as a snowflake (despite the fact my area was under a winter storm warning). 30 miles southeast the snow was falling fast and furious and as I watched in anguish, blizzard warnings were hoisted for most of southeast Iowa.
Sure enough, blizzard conditions developed across much of southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, and northwest Illinois, with zero visibility at times during the afternoon and evening. Strong north winds between 30 and 50 mph were reported during the storm.
The heaviest snowfall reports between 8 and 12 inches (locally more) were common from a line from Sigourney, IA, to the Quad Cities, to Sterling, Illinois. A sharp cutoff of little to no snow was found on the north end of the storm, generally along and north of a line from the Cedar Rapids airport to Dubuque.
This video shows forecasters from the NWS in the Quad Cities trying to launch a weather balloon during the height of the storm. Fun!
Removong the heavy wet snow was backbreaking work for those without snow blowers. This image was taken in the Quad Cities the following day.
So, as you can see, we've had a history of major snowstorms Thanksgiving weekend. One I witnessed, the other I just missed by 30 miles. No matter what, it's always fun to look back and remember where I was and what I was doing. Hope you got a kick out of it too.
SUNDAY SNOW POTENTIAL...
For the most part, not much has changed regarding Sunday's snow system. Interaction between the northern and southern streams is apparent, but full phasing never materializes. Even so, that does amplify the trough enough to slow it down and increase moisture. The end result is a period of snow late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Saturation in the dendritic zone is sufficient for a 1-3" band, but there is still some disagreement as to where that lays out. In general, signals for the 2-3" potential are somewhat higher along a line oriented SW to NE through the Quad Cities. There are a few mesoscale details to iron out, but we should be able to tighten up amounts later Saturday. In the end, I still think most of my area has a good shot at 1-2" accumulations, with a few spots where the heavier band sets up possibly seeing up to 3". I would not be surprised if winter weather advisories are issued for some areas Sunday. For now, here's what models are suggesting for snow totals.
THE EURO
THE GFS
The 3k NAM
THE HRRR
THE 12k NAM
THE Canadian GEM
Once the flakes end Sunday, a sharp shot of cold air digs into the Midwest Sunday night that lasts into Tuesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday will be in the teens with wind chills 5–10 degrees. Highs Monday and Tuesday should remain below freezing, in the upper 20s to low 30s from north to south. If you haven't figured it out by now, some real winter weather is in our future. How long does it last? More on that in my next post. Roll weather...TS
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