THE BEAT GOES ON, FOR NOW

Warm, dry weather has been the name of the game for quite some time. That will continue to be the case through the weekend, but beyond that, some changes are in the offering should bring some rain and put the damper on the unseasonal warmth next week.

Meantime, October started out the way September left off...dry! It turns out the month of September was extremely dry in eastern Iowa, especially the EC part of the state, where totals in spots were less than 3/10ths of an inch. NW Iowa also got the short end of the stick with similar amounts.

In Moline, the parched pattern extends back to mid-August.

During the 45-day period August 19 to October 2nd, rainfall at the NWS in Davenport amounted to just .54 inches. Moline had its 6th driest September on record, Cedar Rapids 8th, Dubuque 10th, and Burlington 11th driest.

Over the past week, many parts of the corn belt saw no rain at all. These are the 7-day rainfall totals. It will be at least another 4 days before so much as a chance of rain.

These are rainfall deficits that have accumulated over the that 7 day period.

Along with the dry conditions have come some very warm temperatures. Since the 10th of September highs at the NWS office in Davenport, highs have been in the 80s or 90s, 20 of the last 22 days. The next 4 to 5 days will continue that trend.

That sinks up well with the 20-day temperature departures, which have averaged 6–8 degrees above normal per day, good enough to place this September in the top 15 warmest of all time.

Thursday through the weekend, guidance continues to build an upper level ridge over the area, reinforcing the pattern of dry and very warm weather. Highs will go from the mid 80s Thursday to the upper 80s Friday through Sunday. A few spots in the south will have a shot at 90 Saturday, which will be pushing records.

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A BREAK IN THE BLOCK...

Finally, the blocked pattern shows signs of slowly breaking down and inching eastward Monday and Tuesday. It eventually is acted upon by an advancing long wave trough. This should put the squeeze play on and finally brings enough forcing to create a few showers and possible thunderstorms late Sunday night or Monday. How much rain falls will depend greatly on how much moisture can advect into the trough and the timing of the associated front. Considering the dryness of the pattern, I'm still hesitant to forecast anything significant despite the fact models are showing some respectable amounts, enough to more than settle the dust in areas. Here's what guidance is showing for amounts before the rain moves out Tuesday night. Currently, the NW half of my area is most favored for anything worthwhile.

The EURO

The GFS

With the passage of the front, we will finally break the hold of the 80+ highs, By then, some places will be working on a streak of 11-12 consecutive days with highs 80 or above. Unprecedented this late in the season. Both the EURO and GFS show highs at the very least in the lower 60s by the middle of next week. How refreshing!

The EURO

The GFS

After the cool down, warmer air looks to bounce back next weekend as another round of ridging evolves. It won't be anything as impressive as we are seeing now but could get highs back into the 70s to near 80 by next weekend. Summer is weakening, but it's not ready to throw in the towel just yet. Roll weather...TS