THE FEBRUARY FLIP, THAT FLOPS
- 2 minutes ago
- 3 min read
A SINCERE MESSAGE
Friends and lovers of weather, it's important that you know I need to reach my financial goal to fund the site, or it's time for me to end my forecasting career after 50 years. I'm doing what I can here to win your support, and rest assured there is no pleasure in asking for money. I get that its hard times and that's why I'm doing all I can to keep TSwails a no pay site. No matter what, I'm here through December, but the 14th year beyond is dependent on you. If you can help my cause, I'm making a humble plea for anything you can swing, it all adds up. I'm $1,980 dollars (or 89% from my goal). Last but not least, I earnestly thank the 323 amazing individuals who have made such gracious contributions. You are all true treasures! Roll weather...TS
THE FEBRUARY FLOP...
Temperatures around the area are going to flop the next few days due to another bout of northwest flow aloft. We've re-established our connection to cold air thanks to the major storm that side-wiped the region Thursday. Before I get to the cold, I just wanted to show everybody what we narrowly avoided in terms of snow. Fredericksburg, Iowa (NE of Waterloo) knocked of 16 inches of snow in short order with snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Many spots from Ames to Waterloo to Decorah had 10-15 inches!
Here's a little larger perspective. The big stuff laid out just to our NW with the storm track NE from Missouri right over the Quad Cities into EC Wisconsin. A shift of 125-150 miles southeast and that would put us in the middle of those yellow and red colors. In the weather world that's not much, but if you like snow it might as well be a million miles. The result would be about the same.
I've got a buddy in Conrad, Iowa (about 30 miles SW of Waterloo) who sent me this picture of the heavy wet snow. He knows I have a thing about snow so he sends me pictures to rub it in. However, I happen to know he's not a fan of the white gold, so the jokes on him as he's the one who had the backbreaking job of shoveling the 9+ inches. Thanks for the memories old man. Hope you can get out of bed tomorrow!
Just as bad as missing the snow, was the fact the needed (most beneficial precipitation) fell to the west where the heavy snow occurred. A few lucky spots picked up 1/2 inch (even as much as an inch near Geneseo in a thunderstorm). Those were the exceptions not the rule. These are the Doppler estimates showing the dry slot following the track of the surface low right up into the heart of my area. A tough break.
The last thing the storm did was buckle the jet sending a flash freeze rapidly through the region Friday. Cold air advection will continue through the weekend and if anything, readings will get even colder by Sunday. The EURO has this for highs Saturday.
Sunday, readings dive into the teens north to the mid 20s far south. Well below normal by over 15 degrees.
That's a pretty dramatic downturn. In the Quad Cities, the last 13 days have seen highs above normal. 4 of those days in the 60s! The coldest day the whole month was on the 1st with a high of 24. Sunday the 22nd is shown colder that that. In other words, we have the coldest weather in 3 weeks to look forward to this weekend.
I do see us warming up the middle of next week with both the EURO and GFS promoting highs in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday and maybe the 50s Friday ahead of another brief cold push next weekend.
The next chance of any precipitation comes towards Thursday of next week. Models are noisy with solutions all over the place and I have limited confidence in any solutuon so I will leave it at that for the time being. Have a fine weekend and roll weather...TS ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 89% to my goal.
