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THE FIRE IS SO DELIGHTFUL...

ONLY 82 COPIES LEFT:

A SECOND PRINTING OF MY NEW BOOK IS ON THE WAY...

NEW COPIES OF DERECHO 911, IOWA'S INLAND HURRICANE ARE AVAILABLE. Around Christmas we sold the last of the 1500 copies of our book on this historic thunderstorm, the most damaging in U.S. history. Due to continued demand we ordered a limited number of 250 for those of you interested in having the most authoritative account of this extreme event. Books are selling fast so don't miss this opportunity to own the weather story of a generation. You can get yours at derechobook.com


I ordered one of your Derecho books about the storm in Cedar Rapids, IA back in December. I love it! I had also bought one that the Cedar Rapids Gazette sold. Your book by far is so much better, you have a lot more pictures and it just tells more of the story. Thank you for putting a wonderful keepsake together! Do you have any left? If so can you tell me how to get at least one more.

Thank you so much! Penny Brecke


THE FIRE IS SO DELIGHTFUL...

The weather outside is frightful, but the fire is so delightful. Those classic lyrics will ring true all around the Midwest this weekend. A giant mass of Arctic air has descended on the region opening the door to bitterly cold temperatures, nasty wind chills, and some snow. That fire looks, sounds, and feels pretty good for those of you who can enjoy it.


On the topic of snow, check out the Doppler radar showing light snow over spreading much of the region Friday evening.

It's not unusual to see snow in February, but it is rare to see it with temperatures that are in the range of 0 to 6 below. These are 2:45am observations late Friday night. Air that cold has serious limitations as to how much moisture it can contain.

However, there's enough forcing in the flow for occasional light snow or flurries to be around from time to time into Saturday morning. Amounts are not anticipated to be much more than an inch, (maybe two) in a few select spots.


That exits by Saturday afternoon but another snow chance returns Sunday, mainly across the south. Amounts look to be minimal and in most areas not much more than a dusting is expected.


Here's the official NWS snowfall forecast through Saturday. From what I've seen and mentioned above, most places will end up with an inch or less. My feeling is that the 2" totals are too widespread and may end up being few and far between, if at all. The lower end of the spectrum is the way I'm leaning.

Here's what the-hi resolution models are showing for snow through Sunday (48hr amounts). These are pretty meager and continue to go down as models get a better grip on the magnitude of the cold dry air.


The 3k HRRR....not at all impressive.

The 3K NAM

The 12K NAM


One last disturbance to watch could bring some snow to the far southeast Sunday night and Monday. The EURO has made an expected correction to the east the past 24 hours and most of the impacts from the system are now shown with good confidence over the eastern 2/3rds of Illinois where a winter storm watch is in effect. Even so, some light snow or flurries may make it as far NW as the Quad Cities. Plenty of time to figure that out.


Temperatures will continue way below normal into Midweek with sub-zero lows assuming there will be breaks in the clouds or even clearing at times in the north. Highs will generally be in the range of 0 to 10 from north to south through Tuesday. Wind chills will be a real threat into early next week and a wind chill advisory is in effect for the most of the area through noon Saturday. Early in the day chills in the range of 15-30 below are expected!

Now the good news. The teleconnections show strong signs of a warming trend late next week that should eventually bring near normal temperatures. Were it not for the deep snow cover readings would probably go well above normal. Here's a couple key changes that give me strong confidence.


First the AO (Arctic Oscillation). This is been strongly negative the past month. Notice how the deep negatives are trending positive by the end of the week. That signifies a change from Arctic air masses to ones of Pacific nature which are significantly warmer.

This is the PNA (Pacific North America Oscillation). It is trending negative indicating mean ridging over the southeast U.S. That and the positive AO will moderate temperatures to much more tolerable levels late week.

Notice how temperature departures go from brutally cold Wednesday.

To a couple degrees above normal Sunday. Now that's progress!

It will be interesting to see if the pattern eventually reverts back to the cold and snowy one we've been seeing the past month. I could see that happening. However, in the meantime there are strong signals we should get a break from the bitter cold and snowy conditions that have recently plagued us towards the end of next week. That should last through the coming weekend. And with that positive news, I call it a post. Roll weather...TS

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