THE GOOD, BAD, AND "UGLY"...
When it's good, it's really good. That's been the case with our weather this week and it couldn't come at a better time considering the Thanksgiving holiday. One thing is for sure, we've seen the good, bad, and really ugly this November. Look at the extremes from warm to cold and now mild again. Cedar Rapids went from 76 the 8th to a low of 6 the 19th. We've seen thunderstorms, snow, and wind chills below zero. That's a good month of weather if you ask me!
In keeping with the theme of the month, we are going to continue to bounce around the rest of November. Our next hiccup comes with a storm system lifting out of Texas. It's energy shows up nicely on the water vapor loop Friday evening.
The track of the system will be from St Louis to north of Indianapolis. My area resides on the NW flank of the precipitation shield and thanks to a slight shift southeast rainfall amounts have decreased the past 24 hours. It now appears little if any rain will occur in my NW counties. From the Quad Cities southeast, amounts under 2/10ths of an inch are expected. From Burlington to Princeton southeast, totals up to 1/2 inch are possible. Bottom line, far SE Iowa and WC Illinois will see the larger amounts. The rain is not expected to start until very late Saturday night in the south and should lift out later Sunday afternoon.
Yesterday models also indicated the potential for a late transition to snow at the tail end of the system in my NW counties, While a few wet flakes could mix in on the edge of the rain shield, that threat has diminished today. Here's the projected rainfall totals.
The EURO is furthest NW and heaviest.
The GFS with its track further southeast is the lightest in my area.
Since the daylight hours of Saturday will be rain free, highs should reach 50-52 as clouds increase as the day wears on. Saturday night lows drop to the upper 30s to low 40s and hold steady much of Sunday as brisk NW winds tug in cold air on the backside of the storm.
The pattern reloads Monday as another system kicks out of the SW and heads for eastern Iowa Tuesday afternoon. The best forcing is expected to remain just to the NW as the majority of my area gets dry slotted. Thus precipitation won't be much of a factor. The EURO shows no more than 1/10th of an inch in the far north to a trace to .03" in the far south.
This disturbance will have a snowy side with a nice snow expected from NC Iowa into SE Minnesota and the NW half of Wisconsin. Some very minor amounts might occur NW of a line from Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Scattered flurries could reach the rest of the area as temperatures crash Tuesday night into the range of 20-25 from north to south.
Wednesday will be a "big" coat day with highs in the mid to upper 20s and stiff NW winds. Wind chills in the teens will make it quite unpleasant to be out and about. They could go as low as 5-10 Wednesday night.
Thursday will be quiet and cold with highs of 30-35. Friday warmer air makes another run at the area with highs likely getting back into the 40s before another dump of cold air next weekend. Overall, after this weekends system, precipitation looks light into next weekend.
That will do it for today. Enjoy the weekend and roll weather...TS
