THE GOOD STUFF, FOR NOW...

terryswails1
Jul 17
3 min read

The CAMS (convective allowing models) such as the 3k NAM and HRRR proved to be accurate Wednesday, as the bulk of the active storms remained just north of the local area in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Doppler radar estimates show two concentrated areas of heavy rain, the first over Nebraska and NW Iowa Tuesday night. That weakened and dissipated but left an MVC (mesoscale convective vortex over WC Iowa). As it moved rapidly into Wisconsin Wednesday, new storms formed ahead of it, as the CAMS had indicated from NE Iowa into much of Wisconsin, where additional heavy rain was noted. As a result, my local remained free of severe storms and heavy rain. Instead, warm, muggy conditions prevailed until a cold front barreled across the region in the afternoon and evening.

Behind the front, some very fresh air for mid-July will rule the roost through Friday. The cool air will be somewhat unstable and that should allow considerable cloudiness. That combined with a north wind will confine highs Thursday to the low 70s north to the upper 70s south. Dew points will be lowering into the 60s and come Friday morning they will have entered the 50s. With a partly sunny sky, Friday is shaping up to be a real beauty with light winds, low humidity, and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Winner, winner, chicken dinner!

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SUMMER WITH A VENGENCE...

It won't take long before unsettled weather moves back into the Midwest over the weekend. The culprit will be the gradual return of warm moist air. As it rides over the cooler air in place, the upglide will provide the lift for the next round of showers and thunderstorms. With periods of clouds and potentially rain cooled air, highs should remain a bit below normal in the range of 80-85 from north to south both Saturday and Sunday.

Next week a big dome of high pressure builds into the Midwest and you can bet your bottom dollar that on the northern edge of the heat comes the classic mid-summer RING OF FIRE pattern. We've talked numerous times about how thunderstorm clusters thrive on the periphery of the heat, particularly at night, when MCS development takes place by way of the intensifying low level jet. With a stagnant pattern shown next week and beyond, things won't move much with multiple storm clusters acting on the juiced up tropical air. That's the recipe for a swath of excessive rain somewhere in the central Midwest.

Closer to the ridge, major heat and humidity is expected. From time to time, some of that may intrude upon the central Midwest, but overall the hottest air should remain to the S/SW. That does not mean we escape the sultry air. By early next week, water vapor of 2 inches or more (shown in pink) is flooding the eastern 2/3rds of the country. Additionally, the maturing corn crop is sweating, adding even more moisture to the air through evapotranspiration.

In fact, I would not be surprised to see several days of dew points that top 80 degrees, which is flat out tropical. The potential is there for multiple days to have extreme heat index potential. One such day is Wednesday the 23rd, when the GFS has many in the 110 to 115 degree range.

Beyond that, the Climate Prediction Center has a moderate to high risk of hazardous heat July 24 to the 30th.

With so much heat and humidity, instability is going to be exceptional, and any storms that go up in that type of air mass will be very efficient rain producers. The GFS has been hinting at that potential for several days, and today was no exception, showing these rainfall amounts over the next 2 weeks. Can you pick out the ring of fire?