- Mar 17, 2023

THE IRISH WHIPLASH....

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THE IRISH WHIPLASH...

Another Thursday, another storm. That's the way it's being going around the central Midwest since early November. I looked into the data for the Quad Cities (which is fairly representative of the rest of my area) and found that 15 of the 19 Thursday's since November 10th there's been at least a trace of precipitation. All told, those Thursday's have produced 2.38" of liquid equivalent.

My statistician/climatologist Steve Gottschalk dug into it a little deeper in his weekly post, Steve's "wild" world of weather and came up with this in depth information at his place in Lowden, Iowa

Thursday's And Winter Storms

I have, along with others, noticed that most of our storms this winter are centered around Thursdays. Sometimes it's a Wednesday-Thursday time frame and other times it's Thursday-Friday. I went back to November to check this out and this is what I found.

In November it was the 10-11th, a Thursday-Friday with a thunderstorm (0.72") and wind.

In December it was the 9-10th, a Friday-Saturday with 0.67" of rain and wind.

Dec. 15-16th, a Thursday-Friday with 0.8" of snow and wind.

Dec. 21-23rd, a Wednesday-Friday with 6.1" of snow, 51 mph wind gusts, blizzard conditions and 0 degree

temperatures.

In January it was the 5th, a Thursday with 1.3" of snow and wind.

Jan. 18-19th, a Wednesday-Thursday with 1.2" of sleet/snow and wind.

Jan. 25-26th, a Wednesday-Thursday with 3.2" of snow and wind.

In February it was the 9th, a Thursday with 1.25" of precipitation (3.5" snow) and wind.

Feb. 16th, a Thursday with 9.5" of snow and wind.

Feb. 22-23rd, a Wednesday-Thursday with 0.70" precipitation (0.3" ice) and wind.

In March it was the 9th, a Thursday with 6.6" of snow and wind.

Mar. 16th A Thursday with rain Totals to be determined.

By the way, long range guidance indicates a potential system for next Thursday as well. Why not!

THE IRISH WHIPLASH

The system that brought rain Thursday then a brief changeover to snow Thursday night, is now whiplashing the region with strong NW winds and colder temperatures. Fortunately, the snow was short lived with amounts generally a dusting although a few spots northwest of the Quad Cities measured an inch or so. Lowden, Iowa in Cedar County picked up 1.5" and the NWS in Davenport measured 1.1". I would say I had about an inch here in Dubuque. These are snow totals through 1:30am Thursday night.

The stinging NW wind that's whipping us Friday morning is the result of strong cold air advection and rapidly rising pressures. A late season surge of polar air has taken Thursday's readings in the low 40s north to near 50 south and shrunk them into the upper teens to low 20s Friday morning. That's about 20 degrees colder than 24 hours earlier.

What's really unpleasant are the wind chills which are barely above zero in the north and pretty much single digits everywhere. Overnight gusts reached 35-40 mph delivering the chill. They will remain in the 20-30 mph range the balance of Friday meaning the Irish parka will come in handy this St Patrick's day. At least there will be some sunshine. Highs may not reach 30 in the north and will be no better than the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Normal highs on the 17th range from 45 north to 50 south. We'll be nowhere close to that lads.

A secondary burst of cold air arrives Friday night with a lobe of vorticity rotating around a closed 500mb circulation over the Great Lakes. The strong cyclonic flow will drive in a a few snows showers, especially across the north. A couple spots might see a dusting. The wind and cold remains a factor through Saturday. Lows Friday night will drop deep into the teens and highs Saturday will remain in the 20s, a solid 20-25 degrees below normal.

Sunday the weekend comes to a close with lighter winds, sunshine, and some welcome moderation. After a cold start highs will get back into the range of 35-40 as the March sun does its thing.

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SOME GOOD NEWS NEXT WEEK...

If you are in the market for some positive news, I have some. Models have trended further north with the next trough and associated storm. Once we get into return flow Monday temperatures will see steady gains into the 40s and 50s. Ahead of the primary energy Thursday, both the GFS and EURO are indicating highs in the 60s, perhaps nearing 70 in the south. Here's what they are showing for max temps. March 23rd.

The EURO

The GFS

Both models indicate dew points reaching 60 in the south. That's rich moisture for March. That generates CAPE up to 1200 j/kg indicating instability.

The K index climbs into the 30s indicating thunderstorm potential.

Timing will be critical regarding any storm threat next Thursday but if nothing else, it's looking more and more likely that we will see the warmest readings of the year so far next Thursday. A couple days after that it's back to cold and potentially snow. That manic personality is what I love about March. Look at these temperature swings the GFS shows for the Quad Cities the next 15 days.