THE JACKPOT...

It won't happen this weekend, but a break is expected in the pattern that has brought a surge of late summer weather that's frankly unprecedented. Not only do I expect a cool down next week, there's the chance some of us will see much-needed rain as early as Monday. That's like winning the jackpot!

Meantime, Friday was another toasty day, with highs in the range of 87 to 91 degrees. The NWS in the Quad Cities reached 90, the normal for the date is 69.6 degrees. For even more perspective, that's 6 degrees warmer than the July 10th average of 84. While the 90 was not a record for the date, it was the 8th consecutive day with a high of 85 or above.

As you can see below, the chance of a 90 degree high October 3rd is 2%. After the 13th, it's essentially zero the rest of the year into early April.

Additionally, this is the latest into the fall the NWS in Davenport has ever gone, with 8 consecutive days with highs of 85 or above. Pretty darn impressive.

Incidentally, the climate guru, Steve Gottschalk informs me that he now has had 40, 90 degree highs this summer after hitting 92 in Lowden Friday. Going a step further, Steve compiled his top 15 Septembers with 90 degree highs and what the following winter produced for snow. The average of all those years is 44.4 inches. That's above normal by 6–10 inches and would be a pretty respectable winter by snow standards.

TOP 90 DEGREE DAY SEPTEMBER'S AND SNOWFALL THE FOLLOWING WINTER

1. 2025 - ????

2. 1971 - 55.2" snow

2. 1978 - 90.6" snow

3. 1960 - 24.7" snow

4. 2005 - 30.9" snow

4. 2017 - 54.1" snow

5. 1961 - 68.8" snow

5. 1983 - 50.0" snow

5. 1991 - 37.0" snow

5. 2018 - 62.6" snow

6. 1985 - 41.6" snow

6. 1998 - 45.3" snow

6. 2000 - 47.5" snow

6. 2013 - 52.7" snow

6. 2015 - 19.4" snow

6. 2021 - 33.7" snow

The remainder of this weekend we can expect more of the same under the influence of the upper level ridge and its warm dry air. One notable change will be breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching trough. Mixing should be strong enough to promote some gusts out of the SW to 25 mph Saturday and perhaps 30mph Sunday. Combined with sunshine, low humidity, and very dry topsoil, highs both days will reach the upper 80s to near 90. We should be very close to record highs and could get one. Here's the existing records for Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday, October 4th Records

Burlington.......91, 1938

Cedar Rapids..91, 1938

Dubuque.........89, 1897

Moline.............91, 2005

Sunday, October 5th Records

Burlington.......89, 2007

Cedar Rapids..90, 2024

Dubuque.........87, 1922

Moline.............89, 2024

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WETTER AND COOLER TIMES AHEAD...

Monday there is good consensus that a front entering the region that will provide the forcing necessary to generate showers and a few thunderstorms. A positive is the slow movement of the front, which only gradually sinks southeast. In fact, most of the day Monday the front is hung up over my NW counties, which means that's the area that sees rain during the day and the cooler readings that go along with it. As a result, the EURO shows a big spread in temperatures from the low 60s north to mid 80s in the south ahead of the front.

With the front bogged down, water vapor is able to pool along and ahead of it. This is a critical development as its return is crucial to any significant rain totals. Models are now indicating water vapor reaching 1.4 to 1.6 inches late Monday.

That and the slow pace of the front is instrumental in models now showing some very worthwhile rain totals, especially over the NW half of my area Monday into Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, the forcing lifts out before it can impact my counties from about the Quad Cities southeast, resulting in totals there that are significantly lighter. The rain band could still move around some, as we are more than 2 days out. However, the EURO and GFS are in pretty good agreement and have been for a couple of days, increasing confidence in the event's outcome. Take a look at what they are suggesting for amounts Monday into Tuesday morning.

The EURO

The GFS

After the big spread in readings Monday (cool NW and very warm SE), all areas get into the cool-down Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs back in the 60s in most areas. That's a big drop-off, but actually not far from where temperatures should be at that time of year.

After a moderate warm-up next weekend, something I'm watching longer range is the MJO. It's making a rotation into phase 1 around the 15th-17th of October.

Phase 1 of the MJO in October, enhanced by La Niña (or negative enso), analogs to a stout trough centered over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

The day 15 500mb pattern on the EURO (October 19th) shows a very similar structure to the analog above.

If this trough ends up developing, it matters because of the chilly change it would bring. Look at the temperature departures shown on the GFS at that time. That's a long way from where we are now. Certainly a trend to watch in coming days.

Meantime, we've got ourselves another summery weekend, and the clock is ticking fast for any of these going forward. Enjoy, I doubt we see another weekend this warm for at least 7 or 8 months. Roll weather...TS