THE JANUARY SWOON...
- terryswails1
- 52 minutes ago
- 7 min read
Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary personal donations. Every year I ask those of you who find value in the site to make a financial donation you feel is worthy. Please reflect on the number of times you have visited us in the last year. If the information or knowledge you gained was valuable, it's my hope you will join the loyal group of contributors that's kept TSwails.com operational since 2013. I'm suggesting $20.00, which is roughly 4 cents a day. Less than 4% of my readers donate, so your gift, no matter the size, is not only appreciated, it helps immensely.
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Sunday a massive winter storm was impacting much of the nation in one way or another, whether it be in the form of extreme cold, snow, sleet, or ice. Winter rules the nation east of the Rockies. At 6:00am Sunday morning, over 143 million people specifically were under winter storm warnings that covered 1,370 individual counties.
Here's a look at the Winter Storm Warnings in effect Sunday that extend from New Mexico to Maine.
Below are snowfall plots for the 72-hour period ending Monday morning. There was a large swath from the Ohio Valley into southern New England where 1 to 2 feet of snow was common.
Here's another perspective of 72 hour snowfall. 6 to 24 inches is indicated in the yellow, orange and red shading. My far southern counties were grazed with 1 to nearly 2 inches of powder. A close call. Before the storm, only 26 percent of the country had a 1-inch snow cover. After the system Monday morning, that number had increased to 56 percent!
This next graphic shows snowfall for the season. Much of the nation half of the nation has accumulated 1–3 feet of snow, with higher amounts in the NE and areas prone to lake effect.
THE JANUARY SWOON, WE SAW IT COMING
Back in early January, we took a stance on this site that the second half of January was going to be far different from the mild first half of the month. Indeed, the much colder pattern change we foresaw took place and using the monthly temperature plots for Dubuque, you can see with clarity how the last 12 days have been a complete reversal. After 11 consecutive days with above normal temperatures January 4 through the 14th, Dubuque has experienced below normal temperatures on 9 of the last 10 days, with 7 of the last 8 below zero. Dubuque has witnessed a temperature range of 75 degrees from the high of 56 the 8th to the low of 19 below the 23rd. Two days recently, the high never climbed above zero. If you include the apparent temperature (how it feels), the month has achieved a 98 degree spread from 56 to a wind chill of -42 the 23rd.
These are the temperature departures the past 10 days, generally around 12–14 degrees below normal.
The last 5 have been especially tough, with departures closer to 18-20 below normal. The worst thing is this has occurred at the climatological coldest time of the year. Yea for us.
The next 5 days which takes us out of January are not going to provide much in the way of relief. The EURO shows average daily departures of 13 to 17 degrees below average through the 31st.
If you look at the configuration of the 500mb jet stream flow the next 6 days it looks like this. That east based trough does not want to break down. It means with NW flow aloft the source of our air masses will continue to have a polar connection through the weekend.
However, we do see a few days in the week 2 period where the western ridge weakens for a time, allowing some welcome moderation in temperatures. In this meteogram for the Quad Cities, you can see where readings are shown reaching or getting slightly above freezing February 2nd-7th.
However, teleconections are not looking favorable for prolonged warmth, with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remaining firmly negative. Those are signals at this time of year that would strongly argue for more in the way of cold temperatures after that short spike. In fact, the EURO ensemble mean of the weeklies depicts much of the eastern U.S. with below normal readings through March 12th.
The control of the same run is very aggressive with cold dominating Canada and much of the nation aside from the far south.
At least for the foreseeable future, this is dead period coming up for storms. High pressure will have the Midwest in a from grip. Deep in the dry air, we can't even scare up a clipper and both the EURO and GFS show no measurable rain or snow through Sunday.
The EURO
The GFS
If that's not dry enough for you, the GFS shows this for total precipitation the next 16 days ending February 11th.
Based on what I just showed you, there isn't much to focus besides temperatures, which I gave you a preview of above in the meteogram. The remainder of the week, highs in the range of 10-20 are on the table with lows of 0-10 through Wednesday morning, falling to -5 to +5 Thursday and Friday thanks to another push of cold air. If there is one saving grace, it's the fact we don't have much if any snow on the ground. A deep snow pack could easily have us 10-20 below zero in the coming days. Thank you very much bare ground! The image below was taken with generally sunny skies Monday so where you see white, chances are you're seeing snow instead of clouds!
That's the long and short of it for now. By the way, My annual fundraiser to fund TSwails is underway. If you haven't, please read my mission statement below.
WHY SUPPORT A GUY LIKE ME...
Going on 50 years now, I've been a meteorologist. My focus was mainly television, although I've worked in all forms of media, including newspapers and radio. My interest in weather runs so deep that I have been compelled to publish 4 books on the subject, hold weather seminars, and be asked to act as a weather authority as an expert witness and keynote speaker. One of the foundational goals of my life is wanting to understand weather and perfect the art of forecasting. There is no doubt in my mind that this is what I was put on this earth to do.
When I was a kid, I would cut out articles and pictures from the Des Moines Register, Cedar Rapids Gazette, and the Iowa City Press Citizen on blizzards and tornadoes that I would file in scrapbooks. I still have them and some of the earliest go back to the Belmond EF5 tornado in 1967, and the Charles City Oelwein duel EF-5 twisters of May 15th, 1968.
My fascination with storms eventually drew me to storm chasing. There is no better way to understand the complexity of tornadoes than to put yourself in a position to see one, and I've done that numerous times. It's an experience like no other, and observing the speed of the process and destruction, produced valuable insights into the urgency of issuing timely warnings.
Experience is immeasurable when it comes to forecasting (and at the age of 70, I'm well into the fall of my life). Yet for me, the excitement of getting up in the morning and digging into the models and the fresh challenges ahead is irresistible. What's more is that I am a competitor with a tremendous amount of pride. When the name Swails is on a forecast, it represents knowledge, accuracy, and commitment. While there is joy in the process, this is not a game for me. I don't do this for fun, I'm out to win. My personal expectation is that I will interpret, visualize, and convey the outcome timely and on point.
To be the best absolutely requires a relentless, long-term commitment to mastering one's craft through deliberate practice, extreme dedication, and a growth mindset. It demands working harder than others, embracing consistent, often grueling training, and possessing the resilience to rise after failures, which inevitably happens. I'm always looking for self-improvement through the learning process.
So what drives me? I have found that I have a gift to deliver information that is helpful to others. It also imparts knowledge. What I do makes a difference in some small way. It allows me to have a legacy, and at my age that word is relevant. I'm told that a legacy is built daily through your actions and habits. My posts are more than forecasts, they are written in my staunch belief in the values of kindness, integrity, compassion, and humor. I'm all about hope, and one of my hopes is that you find value in my insights and the way I present them. That you see the passion and determination I put forth to grow professionally and personally.
My career has allowed me to meet thousands of people and touch millions more. What an honor and blessing that is. Never a day goes by when I don't realize what an incredible life I have led, much of it due to my love of weather. I'm a very lucky guy, and I thank all of you who have supported me over the decades, and that includes my wife, family and friends. You are the light that offers clarity and inspiration.
So, while this is a no pay site without sponsorships, I do have operational expenses, a staff, and the vast amount of time I put into the product. As an independent source, I only answer to you. I'm free to tell the truth as I see it without fear or favor, wherever the facts lead me. My loyalty is to you. That my friends is why I ask, if you find value in the site, please consider a donation.
Hi everyone, as you know, TSwails.com is a no-pay site; existing on voluntary personal donations. Every year I ask those of you who find value in the site to make a financial donation you feel is worthy. Please reflect on the number of times you have visited us in the last year. If the information or knowledge you gained was valuable, it's my hope you will join the loyal group of contributors that's kept TSwails.com operational since 2013. I'm suggesting $20.00, which is roughly 4 cents a day. Less than 4% of my readers donate, so your gift, no matter the size, is not only appreciated, it helps immensely.
PLEASE CLICK HERE TO ASSIST
