THE LONG DRY SLOG, IS IT ENDING...

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THE LONG DRY SLOG...

As a meteorologist, I'm drawn to the field for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the storms. That's where the action is, and it stands to reason that's where the challenges are. While I have no problem with Phoenix, living there would be a nightmare, like being in prison. What would I do day after day looking at the same old blue sky? Not only that, I think my appreciation of the good weather we have is greater when I live through a winter or a cold spell like we just endured. That's just me.

Knowing my issue, you should fully understand that the last 6 months have been far from satisfying weatherwise. I can count on one hand the number of storms during that period that got my old blood flowing. A persistent dry W/NW flow has kept the region short on moisture and storms. Life has been a series of nickel-and-dime systems that are more a nuisance than a storm. But, not to be ungrateful, the two-week period of snow after Thanksgiving did rejuvenate me for a time.

So today, I'm staring out the window waiting for this pattern change that should spice things up in a week, and I wondered, just how dry has it really been, and how does it stack up against other "boring" stretches? Well, what I came up with was eye-opening. From August 15th to February 1st, there has never been a drier 171-day period in Dubuque and Davenport. In Dubuque 6.35" of precipitation has fallen, which is 7.82" below the average of 14.17". The most in that period was 33.44" in 1965-66. (27.09" more than this year).

In Davenport at the NWS office, it's the same thing. The same 171-day period produced 6.13" which is 7.39" below the average of 13.52". The most in that period was 28.58" in 2018-19. (22.45" more than this year).

It's no wonder I'm a bit chapped. It was raining or snowing all the time in 1965-66 and 2018-19. I need the good old days back. By the way, my entire area has been plagued by this parched pattern. Look at the huge deficits with much of the area 5-8" below normal since mid-August.

The bulk of the Corn Belt east of the Plains is mired in the drought. Once we get the frost out of the ground, we are going to need some healthy rains to get subsoil moisture replenished before planting season.

So that is why (at least to me) it's important we get this negative PNA to kick in and hold for an extended period. Starting Tuesday, the mean of the EURO weeklies shows the change from a positive phase to a negative phase occurring next Tuesday and holding through March 21st.

What's critical about the flip is that with a west-based trough, energy has a chance to dig into the west where it can spin up a respectable surface low that can effectively tap gulf moisture. Most of this winter, it's been W/NW flow with an eastern trough. That's brought significant ups and downs in temperatures but meager moisture and minimal storms. If you look at the 500mb anomalies in the negative PNA, you can see the ridge flips to the east (in red), and the trough in blue is positioned over the west. That will modify temperatures considerably in the 10 to 14-day period.

Just as important, if you look at temperature departures, you can see readings fluctuate close to normal locally, with the heart of the cold just west and the bulk of the warmth just east. That puts the Midwest in the sweet spot for storms known as the storm track/baroclinic boundary.

The PNA does not go negative until next Tuesday, and after that it will take 2-3 days to get the moisture flux this far north. If you notice in the animation below, grey and brown depict dry air still in control next Monday. However, after that, in the 8-14 day period, blues and greens representing deep moisture make runs at the Midwest as disturbances start to kick out of the western trough. That is a big positive for increased precipitation.

On February 19th, the GFS shows a system with water vapor (necessary for precipitation) over an inch in southern Iowa.

Numbers like that are about 300% higher than normal. Now that would be a change.

As I've mentioned previously, when the PNA makes its surge into negative territory, other teleconnections have become unfavorable for cold air to penetrate the Midwest. As a result, I look for a nice warm-up with highs as early as this Thursday, cracking freezing in some parts of the north for the first time in almost 20 days. That indicates the initial storm system that develops would most likely be a rain producer.

However, around the 17th or 18th, the WPO (Western Pacific Oscillation) is shown reverting to a negative phase. That's important because it implies high pressure building in the western Pacific. That tends to induce colder air to enter the pattern, which could get the storm track just southeast of the local area. In turn, that puts the area in a position where snow systems could become a factor the last third of the month.

This is the GFS, so we all know to take it with a grain of salt, but for what it's worth, it does show a trend for snowier weather around February 18th.

What is very heartening to see is that it finally shows some much-needed precipitation, most likely in response to the negative PNA.

If nothing else, I've got something to look forward to in the longer term if things go my way. Meantime, we are on the cusp of warmer weather that should remain dry into early next week. I think I can put up with it. Roll weather...TS  ON A SERIOUS NOTE, IF I DON'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 55% to my goal.

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