THE NORTHERN LIGHTS MAY BE DANCING

While the weather on Earth remains quite quiet across the region, the sun produced an event Saturday afternoon that could bring some excitement to the Great Lakes and Midwest. A moderate solar flare erupted on the Earth-facing side of the sun sending a solar storm towards the Earth.

Before we get too far, these events are notoriously difficult to forecast so as I always say, "Prepare for disappointment." These events, however, can be absolutely stunning when they come to fruition.

If you want to go spotting, get into a dark sky away from city lights with a clear view to the north. Ideally no large cities or towns to the north of you as well. Precise timing for viewing depends on when the event impacts Earth and the timing of smaller substorms that are enhanced periods of storming.

One of our space weather satellites, Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), captured the flare near the center of the sun which positions it in an ideal location for potential solar impacts on Earth. Given it was not a particularly powerful solar event, we really are just watching for potential minor impacts and the Northern Lights.

Another satellite, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) captured the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) produced by the solar event. This is what we call a "full halo" event. The camera that captured this imagery sits directly between the sun and the Earth, so when the eruption looks like it's coming out from all directions from the sun it's actually coming directly at us. This is a pretty good indication we may have a solar event headed our way.

Much like weather models that tell us the forecast on Earth, we also have weather models that attempt to forecast these space weather events. The latest guidance has an impact on Earth at 5 p.m. Sunday evening which is nearly perfect timing for North American northern lights viewing. It also appears to be a rather fast and dense event, which would again favor potential northern lights viewing across the northern US, especially along and north of I-80.

The Space Weather Prediction Center has a G3/KP7 watch in effect starting at 7 p.m. Monday evening for the anticipated arrival of this solar storm. Again, this could lead to the Northern Lights being viewed as far south as about I-80. These viewing charts, and the many others you might see, are highly estimated. Weak events have been seen quite far south, with strong events being seen only really far north. There are so many variables that go into the Northern Lights, a basic index for viewing is quite honestly inadequate, but it at least serves as a decent baseline.

Current cloud forecasts Monday night show good conditions are expected across eastern Iowa, much of Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana and northern Illinois. Good to see the Earth weather cooperate.

I'll post any updates to my Facebook page as I get any reports and information if you want to stay updated.

Switching gears, let's really quickly talk about the August tornado season in Iowa. Preliminary surveys from the National Weather Service confirm three twisters all in the southeast part of the state. This sits below the 10-year average of 5.6, and behind recent years 2024 (7) and 2023 (6). Given the cool pattern taking over in early September with limited severe weather potential, we likely will not be adding onto this anytime soon.

The big cooldown remains on track this week with highs dipping into the mid-70s by Wednesday and mid-60s by Thursday. Notice some of those lows well into the 40s! Meteorological autumn will certainly feel like it by late this week. High school football games will be wonderful Friday evening, with college football equally perfect Saturday afternoon and evening.

As the cold front sweeps through Wednesday afternoon and evening, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms along the leading edge. At this point it still does not look likely severe weather or heavy rain will be a significant concern, but I would not be surprised if we see a few severe thunderstorm warnings locally Wednesday mainly for a damaging wind threat. Officially no severe weather forecast is in place by the Storm Prediction Center at this point in time.

High-resolution weather models show the threat of widespread windy conditions of 25-35mph gusts with the cold front passage as well as some embedded stronger gusts with thunderstorms. We will continue to watch and see how this evolves, but again I would not be shocked if a severe weather outlook area is issued from southern Minnesota through Iowa and into northern Illinois for Wednesday.

Looking long term ensemble guidance continues to show warming trends in mid-September. Confidence remains low, but as I alluded to yesterday, I think above-normal temperatures returning is the likely outcome. The script looks to flip sometime around Sept. 8-10 towards a warmer regime.

Hopefully the Northern Lights put on a show for us Monday night! Have a great week, friends.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart