THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PILLOW...
It took some doing but we finally had a big rain up here in Dubuque Monday. The 3.20 inch total was a record for the date. My next door neighbor had 4.35" in her rain gage. This was quite an accomplishment considering totals were barely over an inch over a 6 week period stretching from mid-May to the end of June. Since then 3 notable events have increased the yearly total from 13.00 inches to 21.28. That still leaves a yearly deficit of roughly 4 inches but at least we put a big dent in that shortfall.
In fact, the rain came down so fast and furious that the Mississippi here went up a foot in just 24 hours time at Lock and Dam 11. There was a time in mid-summer when the river was under 4 feet after cresting in late April at 23 feet.
Behind the system, some exceptional weather was found around the Midwest Tuesday. Aside from some fair weather cumulus clouds dotting the sky, temperatures in the 70s and dew points in the 50s made for near perfect day.
Our next disturbance is already on the way as evidenced by the clouds across southern Canada.
That energy is expected to charge southeast Wednesday bringing with it a return flow of southerly winds. You can see the pressure gradient tighten up over Iowa and Wisconsin indicating gusty winds of 30mph+ are likely in the afternoon.
The SW winds should serve to bring a narrow plume of warm moist air northward ahead of a cold front advancing across Minnesota. That sets the table for scattered showers and storms to form in that region late in the day. Further south in my area, mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s will prevail.
Wednesday night, the front barrels southeast and crosses the region. Most models indicate the potential for a broken line of storms reaching the NE after midnight. Models depict the line in a weakening state as it reaches my area and it remains to be seen how much of it holds together. The EURO shows the potential line around 4:00am approaching my NW counties. It begins fading quickly by daybreak as it moves southeast. I expect scattered coverage at best with the NE third of the area most favored for any rain that would fall.
SPC shows any severe risk confined to the upper Midwest.
Behind the front Thursday, a rapid rise in pressure is anticipated which means gusty NW winds are sure to be a factor. They will send a punch of cooler (and especially drier) air back into the region for Thursday and Friday. Highs both days should remain in the upper 70s (80 at best) with abundant sunshine and no humidity to speak of. Lows Friday morning could hit the low 50s allowing for plenty of "natural" air conditioning.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE PILLOW...
The weekend starts out nice and fresh but the warm side of the pillow begins to show up Saturday and by Sunday a significant heat dome is on the door step and the pillow is getting hot. A massive upper level high has taken root which promises 3-4 days of intense late summer heat on the EURO. However, the GFS has thrown a monkey wrench into the mix by bringing a front into the region Sunday night. After a sizzling day Sunday it forces the ridge back to the SW keeping the heart of the heat west and south of the area. This is a major development and would limit our exposure to extreme heat to a day as opposed to the 3 to 4 days the EURO promises.
I for one wonder if the GFS is overdone on the strength of the cool air and its ability to penetrate the powerful ridge. On the other hand, the Canadian supports the GFS solution leaving the EURO as the outlier. The period Monday-Wednesday is now low confidence after looking rock solid for heat the past few days. Not only does the front temper the heat, if it comes into play it could be a catalyst for thunderstorms, something that looked entirely unlikely with the heat dome overhead.
That said, I will focus on the part of the forecast where there is good consistency and initially that is focused on a warmer day Saturday as the ridge expands into the Midwest. Under mostly sunny skies highs should climb into the mid to upper 80s. Fast forward, Sunday looks hot and sultry. Highs should hit the low to mid 90s and with dew points in the 70s, heat index values over 100 are possible. A heat advisory is a possibility if current trends hold.
Sunday night or Monday if indeed the front enters the picture), it could fire some storms if it can break the cap associated with all the warm air aloft. CAPE (instability) on the EURO is extreme across Iowa if it can be tapped, which is far from certain and a wild card right now.
There's no sense speculating any further about the first half of next week with all the pit falls in play. Suffice it to say, it's a period to watch closely as the EURO solution is flat out "mean" with heat index values of 105-110 and highs well into the 90s. The GFS says no way with E/SE winds and highs that could remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s. I'm on the sideline right now as to how this all plays out. For sure, something's got to give in coming days and I will have the latest trends in my next post.
Until next time, roll weather...TS
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