THE RAIN TREND HOLDS, FOR NOW
Happy Saturday friends! Meteorologist Nick Stewart here for one more day. If you've been following along this week, good news! The rocket launch last night went on time even as weather was a bit problematic. So I have an actual weekend off for a change after a 12-day work streak.
Also, the good news is that the trend for some wetter weather continues to hold as the end of September slowly inches closer.
Let's start off with a look at the 72-hour forecast of rainfall centered on Sept. 21-24. That nice plume of blue across the central US is an indication of 0.75" and 1.50" based on historical events that are similar to the forecast pattern. This is an analog.
Also really looking forward to more storms here along the Florida Space Coast, but that's another story for another time.
The overall pattern continues to look like above-normal precipitation for the central US. Good news for a drought-stricken region! This likely will not be a drought-busting rain event, but anything helps. Worth noting how much drier the northeast looks following the passage of Hurricane Lee.
As we discussed yesterday, remember "normal" is about 1.0" for Sept. 22-29, so above-normal precipitation would be higher than that.
Forecasts for rain continue to look promising. This run of the European Ensemble shows all 50 members and the average by Oct. 1 is about an inch. Several members are suggesting higher amounts. Details such as thunderstorm track, which will make-or-break those heaviest amounts, are way too uncertain at this range. Showing the potential is a good sign though!
We haven't talked about temperatures too much over the last few days, but the theme of warmer weather is likely. Looking at forecast highs in Cedar Rapids, there's a pretty strong indication widespread 80s return late next week which will be the beginning of the more active pattern across Iowa.
Wrapping things up, the latest Climate Prediction Center forecast maintains a risk area of heavy rainfall over Iowa. This continues to validate the forecast which perhaps you heard first here on the TSwails blog. We'll have to see if the trend continues to favor us. We need all the rain we can get!
Have a great rest of the weekend friends! Until next time...
-Meteorologist Nick Stewart