THE TIDE HAS TURNED...
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With that, lets get to the weather and there is plenty of good news for a change. The place to start is with Zeta and a southern stream storm that will interact the next 24 hours over the lower Mississippi Valley. My take yesterday that the phasing was going to be less and slower which would shear and steer the worst of the weather to the south of my area. Today there is good consistency in that solution. Therefore, just a few clouds will graze my southern counties the next 24 hours with the rain staying well to the south in Missouri and the southern half of Illinois. Down that way it will be a wet system with significant rain totals expected. The GFS shows this for rainfall.
The EURO is close on its heels with its amounts.
With all but the far south enjoying sunshine, Wednesday will be a warmer day with highs in the upper 40s north to the low 50s south. That's a good 10-12 degrees warmer than Tuesday. Unfortunately there will be a brisk east wind that will maintain a nip in the air.
Speaking of that nip, we all just went through one of the coldest weeks in late October history. This graphic from the Iowa Mesonet shows that from October 18-26th, (that specific period) was the coldest ever in Des Moines going all the way back to the 1870s.
I also thought this was interesting. It's a visual satellite imagery which shows snow covering the ground from NW Iowa into Minnesota and the Dakotas. Very extensive for so early in the season.
This broader perspective shows tropical system Zeta and the southern stream disturbance trying to merge to the south. That will be the weeks big weather maker that we'll watch from afar.
With this huge mass of energy blocking up the pattern, the weather looks uneventful and much more seasonal going forward. That also appears to be the case long-term as the upper air pattern favors a W/NW flow that limits moisture and significant storms over the central Midwest. The EURO goes so far as to show no measurable rain or snow over most of Iowa and my area the next 16 days!
This bodes well for Halloween and Election day. Both look dry and pleasantly cool. However, between the two events there will be a significant cool-down Sunday that rapidly departs Monday. The day 5-10 temperature departures certainly show the improvement.
With that, I will stop while I'm ahead. Happy hump day and roll weather...TS