THE TREND MAY BE OUR FRIEND

OPTIMISM FOR THE FUTURE

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We have been watching the active pattern setting up over the central US for quite some time and the details continue to get a little more certain with time. One phrase in meteorology we like to use is "the trend is your friend." In the case of our heavy rain threat this week there is a slow trend towards bringing our area more beneficial rainfall. In fact analogs, above, are trending towards high probabilities of above-normal precipitation affecting our area.

GFS TRENDS

EURO TRENDS

Both operational global models, the Euro and the GFS, are trending towards heavier rain totals Thursday and Friday across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. If these trends continue we could be looking at some improvement to the ongoing drought situation. I wouldn't call it a lock, yet, but the trends are at least starting to go in our direction.

In terms of the temperature outlook going forward we are also seeing warming signals for the eastern half of the country as well with that line setting up right over our area. This region will be the battleground for the storm track through the weekend and into early next week.

The one-week rainfall on the latest forecast from the Weather Prediction Center indeed keeps the heaviest of the rain to the southeast, however compared to the forecast yesterday, we are starting to see the higher totals across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Updated totals are more than 1" of rain for Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and through the Quad Cities.

While the more active weather is trending in our area, the latest severe weather analogs are still keeping limited severe probabilities locally with the higher totals across the southern Mississippi River Valley region. This overall continues to look like a beneficial rain threat with limited severe threat which is the best we can hope for.

The latest teleconnections are telling us this pattern is likely not breaking anytime soon. The Arctic Oscillation continues to sit in positive territory over the next two weeks. This should keep the weather pattern mostly locked with what we are expected to deal with over the next week.

I ran a reanalysis for all prior months of March that has an AO at least 1.0. This is pretty reminiscent of what we are expecting this week, and so this may really be just the beginning as an eastern ridge builds and keeps the storm track active over the central US. This would be fantastic in terms of removing drought concerns going into the spring plant, but on the same hand, could elevate spring flood concerns across the region as well. The limited snowpack will lead to less of a river flood threat going into April, however a prolonged heavy rain threat over the next few weeks could lead to elevated rivers. This will be something to watch if this pattern continues.

Have a great week everyone!

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart

Now a word from Terry:

On a closing note, I am just 600 dollars short of reaching my fund raising goal to keep the site going past this year. I'm making one last push to reach the top of the mountain. Anybody willing to donate 300 dollars will get two of my autographed books, my bobblehead, and a Terry Swails rain guage. Please, if you can help in any way, it would be greatly appreciated. Roll weather...TS

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