THE TREND MAY NOT BE OUR FRIEND

Who is ready for a return to the heat? I'm guessing not many but like it or not, that is how things are trending as we move late this week into the weekend with temperatures once again pushing into the 90s also featuring increasing storm chances as well with the 'Ring of Fire' pattern once again taking aim on the Midwest. Above, you can see analogs are highlighting with 80%+ chance probabilities temperatures sitting above normal.

The upper air pattern has a significant ridge building across the central CONUS once again pumping warm air and moisture across the region. It's the foundation to the return to heat and an active pattern in the vicinity this time of year.

It is reflected quite well in the model trends that temperatures for the Quad Cities region are on the way up into the weekend with highs approaching 90 likely by Friday. This will likely not be as bad as last week but things are going to get uncomfortable.

SATURDAY

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The European model as an example has heat indices not quite reaching the triple digits this weekend. Additionally, as bad as the smoke is for air quality, if it lingers through the week at least aloft, it will have a mitigating impact on the surface temperatures by reducing and filtering the sunlight.

Switching from the heat to the storms, analogs are pretty locked on to the idea of above-normal precipitation this weekend for the Upper Midwest. This seems quite reasonable given the upper air pattern and I still believe the 'Ring of Fire' pattern is likely despite the European ensemble still not particularly interested in the idea.

The American GEFS on the other hand still holds onto the idea as well of an active weather pattern in the region late this week into the weekend with above-normal precipitation likely. In an ideal scenario the storm track sets up farther north to continue to give us some time to dry out after an incredibly active July. The storm chances really start increasing Thursday and onward.

We start to see a pattern breaking down briefly with a transition to an active stretch this weekend. A pretty robust shortwave trough is indicated Saturday/Sunday which will usher in the highest chance of storms in the upcoming period. Need to watch that period specifically.

A preliminary analysis of July precipitation had Iowa as the fourth-wettest July on record with Illinois as the 12th-wettest on record. Dry time would be helpful, but the trend may not be our friend.

-Meteorologist Nick Stewart