THE WITCH OF OCTOBER...

Welcome to October, a month with two witches. The one we see today is Glenda the good witch, filled with summer's warmth, smiles and promise. Then there's the dark side with the wicked witch of the west, cold-hearted and loaded with menace, spewing a chilling cold strong enough to produce snow. Yes, my pretty, I've experienced them both and chances are we will again this year before October is said and done.

For now, sweet Glenda is in the house and today promises to be another balmy summer-like day with highs in the 80s. One notable change will be the addition of more clouds, which should be enough to knock temperatures back several degrees. Even so, highs will end up more than a dozen degrees above normal and the clouds will yield no rain.

Peace in the valley will remain the name of the game through the weekend thanks to a stout block in the atmosphere. Not only is it positioned to block cold air, it is also in a spot that shuts down moisture. My climate man Steve Gottschalk recorded a high Tuesday of 91 with a relative humidity of 28%. He ended up with 10 September days in the 90s, a record for him. He also indicated it will end up as the 3rd warmest September on record for him in Lowden, which is super impressive considering the first 10 days of the month were quite cool. Steve also mentioned his 4 warmest Septembers have all come since 2015.

This is an interesting tidbit, a friend of Steve's who lives on a farm SW of Bennet, Iowa, mentioned he saw thousands of swallows on the wires, trees, and buildings. They filled the power lines for 1/4 mile stretch. He indicated he had only seen that twice, in the fall of 1981 and 1978. The winter of 81/82 was very cold, averaging 15.7 degrees. January was wicked, with an average temperature of 4.9 degrees, along with 3 stormy weekends and blizzards. Snowdrifts were like cement. Wind chills on the old scale reached 90 below, more like 60 below today. The winter of 78/79 was even worse, with bitter cold and 90 inches of snow in Lowden. The wicked witch of the west loves swallows and crows, is she up to something?

The 500mb pattern that is driving this amazing run of weather looks like this.

Saturday morning we are still in the warm dry sector of the block, but a trough is finally digging into the Rockies and models today have been suggesting the pattern should break down some beginning early next week.

However, the process looks to come in stages, with readings going from the 80s, to the 70s, and then potentially much cooler towards the end of the period around October 15th. The EURO ensemble shows this.

The GFS ensemble is in pretty good agreement, although not as cool near the 15th.

The deterministic run of the GFS without the aid of warmer ensemble members is much cooler, with highs well into the 50s by October 11th.

To get there, it shows this at 500mb, which is a dramatic reversal from where we are now.

This trend may be a couple of days too fast, but I have seen evidence recently that models are toying with the idea of building a strong ridge off the Pacific Northwest. That would promote a downstream buckle with a strong trough near the Great Lakes. By October 13th the control of the EURO weeklies is looking pretty similar to the deterministic GFS. That could be a sign that the wicked witch is stirring the pot and is ready to cause mischief.

By the end of October, the EURO ensemble mean shows at least a trace of snow reaching my northern counties.

The big take-away is that a pattern change is possible in 7–10 days that will put our summery temperatures to bed, perhaps for the rest of this year. This trend is still in the early stages and subject to change, but I've seen enough to put it out there.

As for rain, I still think we remain dry and very warm through the weekend. Then, as the pattern begins to evolve, rain chances should improve with our first shot at some rain Monday, followed by a couple more chances later in the week. Here's what the EURO and GFS suggest for rain totals during the period October 6th through the 10th. We'll take anything we can get.

The EURO

The GFS

That's all I have for now. If you see Glenda, tell her thanks! Roll weather...TS

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