THERMALLY DECLINED

terryswails1
Jun 28
3 min read

Some welcome changes took place in our weather Friday, thanks to a cool front that broke a week-long run of heat and humidity. It also produced another round of thunderstorms Thursday evening as it progressed southeast. Over that 7-day stretch ending Thursday, rainfall totals show a clear representation of where the ring of fire (the stormy edge of the heat dome) was situated from SW Iowa into SE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. Rains in the red and yellow tones amounted to 2–6 inches (locally more in a few spots). Further SE in central Missouri and Illinois, the core of the heat CAPPED the atmosphere with a dramatic reduction in storms and rainfall.

Here's what fell on the river basins of my local area Thursday evening.

Behind the front Friday, notice how the skies cleared out with the arrival of cooler, drier air. For the first time in more than a week, no rain was falling anywhere in the state of Iowa.

The absence of clouds corresponds with the drier air mass in place. Friday, the 2-inch water vapor levels of Thursday were forced out of Iowa into central Missouri and Illinois.

Dew points, another way of measuring low level moisture, showed readings in the low to mid 60s north of I-80. Further north in the upper Midwest, 50s were found, indicating significant drying.

Look at these afternoon temperatures Thursday, upper 70s to mid 80s.

Those readings were as much as 10 to15 degrees cooler than 24 hours earlier. Nice as it was, departures were already going up in western Iowa, a sign that a new surge of heat and humidity is in our future this weekend.

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THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...

Saturday begins a quick transition back into full on summer. While humidity will be moderate and at tolerable levels, temperature should have no trouble hitting the upper 80s north to low 90s south. Some patchy fog is possible early, otherwise a sunny day with light winds will make for ideal conditions at the local swimming hole.

Sunday, the approach of a cold front in Minnesota will continue to draw very warm air into the region. Moisture is also likely to pool ahead of the front, sending dew points close to 70. A sultry day could even produce a few thunderstorms in the afternoon of the hit-and-miss variety, low coverage at best. Highs again will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, creating an unstable atmosphere with CAPE on the HRRR shown over 4,000 j/kg in NC Iowa ahead of the front.

At 7:00pm. Sunday evening, the HRRR shows a decent line of storms advancing SE through northern Iowa and SW Wisconsin.

The bright cloud tops on the simulated IR satellite indicates some large and healthy updrafts. Timing will play a role in how this evolves along with ensuing impacts. Some strong storms and at least pockets of heavy downpours are possible, but fortunately, shear is on the low end for any widespread severe weather.

Some storms could linger into Monday morning in the south, but with time a nice push of high pressure should send in some outstanding weather Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS meteogram shows comfortable temperatures in the low 80s. Beyond that, readings spike a bit with higher humidity arriving Thursday and especially Friday, July 4th. At least scattered thunderstorms could work their way back into the picture at that time. The meteogram below shows highs in the Quad Cities through the 4th and the remainder of the holiday weekend.

That is all for me this post. Nick Stewart will be stepping in for a few days as I move my daughter to Kansas City, where she will be attending the Kansas City Art Institute. I will be packing the U-Haul Monday in the Quad Cities. Later that day we make the trip to KC. Tuesday we unpack at the new place, and then it's back home by the 4th of July. She's never been more than 1.5 hours away, so this is going to be a bit tough on good old dad (and maybe her too). But, this is why you put in the work, to give her the opportunity to flourish as a person and spread her wings. Fly, baby girl, fly!

Here's some memories, how the time has flown...