THROW IT IN THE DRYER...
The strong (long advertised) cold front has made it through the region sending the Midwest into a prolonged period of cooler than average temperatures. Personally, I'm not thrilled with the chilly weather but a week or two of dry weather would be a good thing for the Mississippi River which is undergoing a significant rise due to a snowmelt crest and a couple of strong storms on top of it. Below you can see the precipitation that's fallen the past 14 days over the upper Midwest.
That's on top of the 2-5 inches of water released through snow melt in Minnesota and Wisconsin during last weeks big warm-up. It's little wonder that the surge is going to cause major crests through the mainstem Mississippi from St. Paul to the Quad Cities and beyond. All the gauges in purple along the river are where major flooding is expected over the next 1-2 weeks.
Fortunately, additional heavy precipitation does not appear to be in the cards the next couple of weeks with a prolonged period of NW flow. That shuts down access to Gulf moisture, the key ingredient to significant rains. Here's the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center covering the period April 26th to May 4th. Any rain over that period looks light and scattered.
Without a doubt a drier less active pattern is getting established. Unfortunately, if you like your weather mild the NW flow will see to it that springtime warmth is at a premium. Not much to look forward to in terms of mild days, at least by late April and early May standards. Here's the CPC temperature outlooks April 26th-May 4th.
The GFS shows temperature departures like this over the next 10 days.
Departures such as that are to be expected with a 500mb jet stream flow that looks like this Saturday. You can't draw up a much colder looking weekend pattern than that.
Here's some of the departures indicated Saturday when temperatures may be hard pressed to get above 40 in the north and low 40s south.
ONE HOT DEAL... 3 NIGHTS FOR THE PRICE OF 2 MEMORIAL WEEKEND IN GALENA
THE LITTLE WHITE CHURCH AWAITS YOU
Get the gang together. Kick off summer with a free night at the church, one of the most unique stays in the Midwest. Call Carolyn at 563-676-3320 or email carolynswettstone@yahoo.com CLICK HERE
FROST ON THE FOILAGE..
Freezing low temperatures are likely in many areas Saturday through Monday. Currently Sunday morning looks to be the coldest when a hard freeze is possible in many areas with lows of 26-30 likely. A freeze warning is likely for parts if not all of the area at some point over the 3 day period. The GFS indicates this for Sunday lows. This will be contingent on skies clearing.
With all the cold air around Saturday and 850mb temperatures of -8C or colder, steep lapse rates will produce windy conditions and plenty of clouds. The instability may be strong enough for scattered snow showers or graupel late Friday night or Saturday. The GFS indicates this for snow totals ending Sunday.
The EURO has this.
So here we are a month into spring and we continue to talk about sub-freezing temperatures and the possibility of snow flakes. While this winter was not especially cold here, it was up north where it was a big snow producer. Here's the seasonal snow reports around the Midwest. Minnesota and Wisconsin really took it on the chin. There were even a few spots in my northern counties with 50 inch totals. That's a pretty good snow season.
Anyway, it's back to the coats and heater this weekend. Here's hoping for a spring resurgence soon! Roll weather...TS
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