THUNDERY, THEN SERIOUS HEAT

The summer solstice is just 4 days away, and that's all the time we have left before summer gets off to a sizzling start here in the central Midwest. The key to the coming heat and humidity is a building ridge of high pressure that by Sunday will be centered just to the east of the Mississippi River.

An unabated flow of hot, muggy air is aimed directly at the Midwest, and that combination will throw us into the frying pan. These are the temperature departures on the EURO Saturday evening. The core of the hottest air is situated NW of the heat dome centered over the Ohio Valley.

The EURO shows this for highs in the Quad Cities. Note 6 consecutive days in the mid to perhaps upper 90s. Nighttime lows are expected to remain close to 80 degrees.

Then there's the problem of humidity. Notice the influx of water vapor over the eastern half of the nation. PWATS, (precipitable available water vapor) are in the 1-2 inch range over most of the eastern half of the country.

That translates to dew points as high as 77 on the GFS Saturday afternoon.

Add to that temperatures well into the 90s, and it's into the sauna we go. These are heat index values, how it will feel with the heat and humidity Saturday and several days beyond. That would constitute heat advisories.

At this point, the NWS heat risk outlook has the majority of the Midwest in a level 3 out of 4 major risk category (in red). Major - Indicates a level of heat that affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows the odds of above normal temperatures at 70-90 percent (a slam dunk), during the period June 22-26th.

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WHAT ABOUT RAIN?...

Before the heat arrives, and again when it eases a bit late, the region will be situated on the northern edge of the heat dome, a spot thunderstorm complexes are known to thrive. We haven't seen much for storms yet, but chances are likely to go up the next couple of days and beyond leading to above normal precipitation the next 10 days, which we could use, especially going into this weekend's heat.

There's even the chance a few strong storms could develop the next 2 days, although SPC is thinking the more widespread threat is just west Tuesday and accordingly just east Wednesday. Strong winds and some hail would be the biggest concerns.

Another issue with any storms that might form is their ability to produce significant rain totals. Very high levels of available water vapor could make the stronger updrafts very efficient rain producers. Amounts of over 2 inches in an hour is not a stretch. The Weather Prediction Center does show a slight risk of excessive rains over much of southern Iowa and WC Illinois Tuesday and Tuesday night. It appears most of Tuesday will be dry, with development holding off until later in the day or evening.

After Wednesday, I don't look for much in the way of rain Thursday through Sunday, unless it is Friday afternoon or night. That's when strong warm air advection arrives ahead of the weekend heat burst. The GFS shows some potential for storms then, but the EURO is not in that camp as of yet. Here's what guidance is indicating for rain totals Tuesday late through Wednesday night.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3k NAM

The HRRR

Temperatures Tuesday will be toasty, ranging from about 84 north to near 90 south. Wednesday looks like clouds, showers and storms could hold readings in the mid 70s north, to the low 80s south. Thursday 80-85 looks reasonable before 85-90 Friday. Then the heat is on heading into the weekend, which should be rain free despite an abundance of humidity.

That's where things stand going into Tuesday. Make it a strong day and roll weather...TS