TIME TO TURN THE PAGE

For the past week or so, models have been consistently showing high levels of water vapor that correlates to heavy rain potential from any thunderstorm clusters that form within it. So far the rains have been hit-and-miss and a bit disappointing from a personal perspective. As you can see, the past 7 days ending the 16th, the bulk of the beneficial rains have been to the NW or SE with little to no rain locally.

To be more precise, the majority of my area has seen just 5 to 25 percent of its average precipitation for the period June 10-16th. Not very good.

Overnight, some spots did get into narrow pockets of heavier rain, but it was spotty. Through 10:00 p.m. Doppler showed a swath of welcome rains just NW of the Quad Cities, where 1/2 to 1" totals were found. Some local spots in the purple colors had more than 2 inches. Other spots saw nothing at all.

Weak forcing is one of the more frustrating aspects of forecasting summer rains. If you don't have strong forcing in the form of upper air energy or a cold front, pinpointing showers gets difficult due to their random nature. About all you can do is broad brush a region with a chance, stress the hit-and-miss nature, and the ability of any storms that do develop to produce locally heavy downpours. You get what you get, but I understand it's frustrating for those who hear rain in the forecast but do not get much if any at all.

This first wave of energy Tuesday, with its focus on the area NW of the Quad Cities, was pretty much over with by midnight. Since then, attention has turned to a low pressure and cold front that will cut across central Illinois Wednesday. There is more concentrated energy for this to potentially be a rain producer. The track of the surface low should be over the SE tip of Iowa, which technically puts the area in the cooler sector of the system. Much of the rain that falls in my region will come from the deformation band found on its NW flank. Any thunderstorms are likely to be elevated and confined to the southeast, with minimal severe potential. Extensive cloudiness and passing periods of rain will keep temperatures mainly in the range of 70-75. It is likely that there will be some pockets or swaths of 1/2 to 1"+ rains, with the most likely area from about the Quad Cities southeast, just a rough guess. Other locations will see far less.

Further southeast, the air will be far more unstable and some severe weather is likely from central Illinois into Indiana. We should just miss out on the fun. Here's what SPC shows for its severe thunderstorm risk area Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday we return to sunshine and warmer weather with highs popping back into the low to mid 80s. Friday has some question marks as strong warm air advection approaches from the southwest. It may be just the forcing necessary to bring some storms into the north, or at least some debris clouds. That should keep temperatures from exploding like they will Saturday. Even so, heat and humidity will become more noticeable as a steamy air mass gets set to take up residence over the weekend. Highs Friday should range from 84 northeast to 90 in the southwest.

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TURN THE PAGE...

Saturday, the heat dome makes its move on the region, allowing hot temperatures and high humidity to bring stifling conditions. The EURO shows this for highs Saturday afternoon.

Sunday is every bit as hot.

Here are the heat index values that dew points near 75 will impart not only Saturday, but into Sunday as well. Heat advisories are a given.

The experimental NWS heat risk outlook shows level 3 out of 4 potential Saturday (major).

Sunday and Monday, the risk is shown at level 4 of 4 or (extreme). Personally, I think Saturday looks just as rough. Here's the definition of level 4 heat. Extreme - This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts likely in most health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure.

SUNDAY

MONDAY

Well into next week, the EURO shows the heat holding strong in the Quad Cities, with temperatures approximating these levels.

If indeed that trend holds, it will likely mean a CAPPED atmosphere with only widely scattered to isolated thunderstorms, at best. If you are one of those who wondered where summer was, you won't be by the time the weekend is over. It's time to turn the page to a new season. Have a delightful day and roll weather...TS