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It's been mighty dry around the Upper Midwest lately... The dry stretch gave farmers a great chance to plant, but now we're in need of rain. We're starting to fall behind as the last 20 days has only produced a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

We're not dealing with drought conditions, but still have portions of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois dealing with abnormally dry conditions... which can easily turn into drought conditions if not changed.

We do have a storm system on the way that will bring some rain to the region, but there's been some uncertainty on the track and therefore the amount of rain that will fall. Let's start with Tuesday... we'll have clouds to start the day and it will be dry for the first half of the day:

Temperatures will once again be below normal. Some scattered showers will possible in the afternoon, but it appears the initial push of widespread rain will be near and west of I-35 in Iowa:

Some more showers will fill in overnight into Wednesday morning:

Here's where uncertainty comes in... models are starting to show the low pressure coming through eastern Iowa and therefore sending temperatures up into the 60s and 70s:

This could lead to some thunderstorm activity in the afternoon as the low moves across, depicted here by the HRRR:

The Storm Prediction Center also has outlined a marginal risk (1 out of 5) of severe weather for Wednesday due to our proximity to the low pressure system:

Whenever you're this close to a low the potential for an isolated tornado certainly exists due to an abundance of spin available in the atmosphere. Something we'll have to watch, but a strong storm or two with strong winds and hail can't be ruled out.

In terms of rainfall totals this should be a good rain for the area... not too much and not too little.

Depending on the exact track this could still change some -- and locally higher amounts will be possible in any thunderstorms.



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