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Hi everyone, as you know, is a no-pay site; we exist on what I call voluntary subscriptions or personal donations. Every year I ask those of you who find value in the site to make the financial donation you feel is worthy. Your contribution, whatever you can swing, supports the content, infrastructure, and operational costs of I'm currently at only 77 percent of what I need to keep the site going. To read more about my story and make a donation, CLICK HERE Thanks, it's always a pleasure to serve you!


Unless you are in the southeast (and even there it's still somewhat questionable), chances for snow continue to diminish in my northwest counties. The deterministic run of the GFS continues to display a track so far southeast it misses my area altogether. (Interstingly, its ensembles are much further west bringing accumulating snow to much of the area near and southeast of the Mississippi). That indicates the model is still struggling to get a bead on the storms structure.

The EURO has had its issues too as the last 3 runs haves steadily trended southeast and now it has most of the NW half of my area out of the snow band. With the energy currently based in the southwest there's still some potential play in the track but the latest trend is to keep the most significant snow over the southeast half of my area, especially southeast of a line from Muscatine to Clinton and on to Freeport. That's discounting the deterministic GFS which is essentially is a swing and a miss.

The widely varying model solutions are tied to phasing and coupling of the upper level jets which will determine final intensity and track. We should have a much better understanding of that process in the next 12 hours. Meantime, the side by side comparison of the ensemble member surface plots, the GFS (left) and EURO (right), show the clustering which helps to define the most likely position of the surface low Friday. That is critical to the outcome. The GFS is significantly further southeast than the EURO which remains close to St. Louis. That is why we have issues defining the snow band in my area. Two solutions, two outcomes.

Here is what the ensemble snow forecasts from the GFS and EURO suggest for amounts. First the GFS

Now the EURO. Heavier and a little further NW on the 2" snow line in my Iowa counties

The ensemble control of the EURO is very bullish on amounts near and east of the Mississippi.

The 3k NAM is just now in the fold and it shares similarities with the EURO.

For kicks, take a look at the GFS deterministic snowfall totals (no ensembles involved). It shows a nothing burger for my area. That's far different than the ensemble mean I showed you above.

The bottom line for now is that the storm does not arrive until Friday and that means alterations are still quite possible. At least for now I like the heaviest snows in the southeast half of my region, especially south of that line from Muscatine to Clinton and on to Freeport. At some point the NWS is going to need to pull the trigger on a watch that could inclulde that part of my area. Stay tuned and roll weather...TS



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Additonally, I am still doing 2 nights for the price of one through spring with some open dates still on the calendar. Treat that special somebody with a romatic trip to one of the regions most unique destinations. Or, split the cost with a friend and just get out of dodge. Dial Carolyn at 563-676-3320 or E-mail Carolyn at This is a first come first serve deal. Click the link for pictures and information.


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