VISIONS OF PRECIPITATION...
- 8 minutes ago
- 2 min read
AN UPDATE ON THE FUTURE
Guys and gals, we are on the cusp of reaching the funding I need to get the site through another year. I'm at 94% of the necessary goal. Nothing would make me happier or more reIieved to get it behind me. I just need a little bump to get over the hump. If you use the site daily, find it informative, or make financial decisions based on it, please consider a donation. Any bit helps to keep it going in its no-pay format. Nick and I will work hard to bring you the reliable value you have come to expect the last 13 years. The future is up to you. Thank you for your help!
VISIONS OF PRECIPITATION...
Looking through the morning runs of the models, I came away optimistic about the chances for much needed precipitation the next two weeks. It all stems from a mean trough that looks to get established over the southwest. The EURO ensembles indicate a 10 day mean 500mb pattern that looks like this March 3rd through March 13th. The loading pattern looks prime fro multiple systems containing moisture.
The ensembles of the EURO (51 members) show mean precipitation of 2.5 to 3.5 inches over my area.
The GFS is even wetter with its ensembles indicating 3 to 4.5 inches locally.
Here's the total departures of 1-2 inches plus on the EURO
The GFS ensembles show a surplus more like 2-3 inches.
The operational run of the GFS is even better based on a single run. In fact, it shows a swath of 10-16 inches of rain from Missouri into central Illinois. I would bet that is significantly inflated but the trend towards much heavier precipitation where its needed is a shining light. Actually, central Missouri better hope the GFS is inflated because that 16.81 inch bullseye on the operational would cause major flooding issues in that part of the Midwest.
These are the 15 day departures on the operational GFS which are as much as 15 inches above normal in Missouri.
Before the wet pattern emerges we have a big day of warmth Friday with highs of 60 north to 68 south! After that, things turn colder and some light snow could graze my far northern counties Saturday afternoon. Snow is more likely Sunday evening.
The EURO ensembles show this for snow potential then, including anything that might fall in the north Saturday.
The GFS ensembles keep Sunday nights snow generally near and south of I-80.
Obviously we still have some wheeling and dealing to do on the Sunday night event. After a 3 month stretch of general inactivity, I'm optimistic the action increases notably the next 2 weeks! Roll weather...TS ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE, IF I CAN'T MEET MY FINANCIAL GOALS, THIS WILL BE THE LAST YEAR OF THE SITE. IF YOU LIKE THE CONTENT, THE FUTURE IS UP TO YOU. T.S. 94% to my goal.
