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WARMTH, STORMS, AND SNOW....

This week is going to have it all with near-record temperatures, the chance for severe weather, and accumulating snow. It starts with a low pressure system moving across Iowa on Monday:

Temperatures will rise into the 50s potentially some 60s and within a few degrees of record highs for January 16th:

The record in Cedar Rapids is 54°set in 1990 and the record in Moline is 59° set in the same year. Both of those records could potentially go down. Not only will there be warmth but there will be moisture:

A lot of models are showing dew points getting into the 50s - quite impressive for January and substantial enough to get some showers and thunderstorms going. Earlier Saturday the Storm Prediction Center had part of the regional in a marginal risk (1 out of 5) but they've since gotten rid of it. Here's a look at a similar outlook from the National Weather Service:

This is due to the proximity of the low pressure system leading to plenty of spin in the atmosphere. There is expected to be some instability in the afternoon if there is some clearing:

If all of these things don't line up then severe weather won't happen. However due to that low pressure system cutting right across the state I'm not going to let my guard down with some brief tornadoes, hail and gusty winds. At the very least there will be some rain and potentially thunder around.

Rainfall totals will be around a quarter of an inch to three quarters of an inch:

Colder air moves in behind this storm and another storm system arrives Wednesday night into Thursday - bringing a mixed bag of precipitation:

There's still uncertainty on how much snow will fall due to uncertainty in the exact track. We should have a much better picture over the next 48 hours.

RK

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