WHEN IT RAINS, IT POURS...

Just when things were getting concerning, it's rain to the rescue here in the central Midwest. Since January 1st, precipitation deficits have steadily grown across Iowa and Monday evening had reached as much as 5 inches across southern Iowa.

Going into Monday, the total Iowa statewide rainfall average was just 0.16 inches for the period May 3rd-18th. That easily makes it the driest in state history for that 16-day period. The previous record was 0.45 in 1987. Normal Iowa amounts average 2.07 inches. On the flip side, in 1896 4.50 inches statewide made it the wettest May 3rd -18th.

More important, rain amounts are on the rise now and this recent stretch of dry weather is toast. Before the rain started Monday, Cedar Rapids had measured just 0.02 inches over the previous 17 days. Topsoil moisture was depleted and on several days blowing dust and haze filled the air.

At least for now, the lack of rain issue has been eliminated thanks to another powerful spring storm. Fortunately, its track leaves most of the severe weather to the south. There's just an outside chance Tuesday afternoon a couple of stronger storms could clip my far southern counties closer to the warm sector. Even there, SPC has only a marginal risk until about Galesburg southeast where it's increased to a slight risk into central Illinois.

While we are likely to miss any significant severe weather, we will see occasional showers and some thunderstorms. Most of the thunder ends Tuesday evening, however, the slow movement of the system could deliver showery periods into Thursday. When it comes to precipitation amounts, most areas could see 1-2 inch totals, with some local spots perhaps not far from 3 inches. The bulk of the rain falls between Monday night and daybreak Wednesday. Here's what models are suggesting for totals.

The EURO

The GFS

The 3K NAM

The NAM

The HRRR

Along with the rain Tuesday, it looks as though cooler than average temperatures will be found north of I-80 (especially north of HWY 30) where E/NE winds, clouds, and wet periods will bring temperatures more reminiscent of late March or early April in the 50s. The south will be spared the chill Tuesday, as highs south of I-80 are shown sneaking into the 70s near the warm front. The 3k NAM indicates this for highs. Note the 20+degree spread in temperatures from my northern counties to those in the south.

Beyond Tuesday, everybody turns chilly with highs Wednesday 50-55 north, and 55 to 60 south. Thursday, most areas will remain in the mid to upper 50s. Friday, if we can get the sun out, 60-65 should be attainable. Here's what we have to look forward to Wednesday, when the GFS shows temperature departures up to 25 below normal. I say no to that!

Over the next 7 days, the EURO shows temperatures that average about 10 degrees below normal per day. That's not what you expect to see going into the last week of May.

The coming weekend is a little iffy Saturday, when the EURO brings in another rain chance late in the day and evening. The GFS is further west and just grazes some of my SW counties with showers. I will defer for another day on how that plays out. At the least, Saturday looks cool with increasing clouds, especially in the afternoon.

Well, our farming friends should be happy, after a couple of mild dry weeks to finish planting, the rains are here to get things growing. The fields will soon be green with corn and beans on the rise. Here's to the farming guys and gals who grow them. It's a beautiful time of the year! Roll weather...TS