- Jun 8, 2021

WHERE IT RAINED, IT POURED...

As was the plan, higher humidity levels lead to the development of widely scattered showers and yes, thunderstorms in parts of the area. Coverage was generally limited to the southeast half of the region but even there, amounts varied greatly from sprinkles to what was likely more than 2 inches in isolated spots. In the Quad Cities, the NWS office in NW Davenport had 7/10ths of an inch. Just east of there in Le Claire I had .01". The Moline airport on the south side of town had .02". That's the way it was, hit and miss, splash and dash. Here is the DVN Doppler radar estimates showing the small pockets of 1-2 rains near Edgington, Coyne Center, and just southeast of Coal Valley.

This expanded view shows the majority of the rains falling near and southeast of the Mississippi.

The satellite shows areas just to the west in Iowa partly sunny and steamy.

With the pattern stagnant and changing little through Thursday, what you see is what you are going to get. Scattered showers and storms will remain a possibility in spots driven by the days heating. As the convective temperature is reached the spotty rains blossom as the day unfolds and then quickly culminate just before sunset. With high levels of water vapor and weak shear and steering currents, storms where they end up forming will be slow movers capable of localized downpours. Some "isolated" locations will likely see an inch or more. Many other areas will avoid the rain altogether. Again, the best chances (30-40% odds) will be near and east of the Mississippi. Chances will inch lower Wednesday and Thursday as the system fills and slowly pushes off to the east.

Here's the limited coverage the 3k NAM shows at 6:00 PM Tuesday evening. Get the idea, very spotty in nature.

As for temperatures, they should hold in the mid to upper 80s through Friday with enough humidity to keep up a good head of "steam".

Heading into the weekend, a front will pass the region Friday late Friday night or Saturday depending on the model of your choice. It could scare up a few showers and storms but the timing is poor and the dynamics weak for much in the way of rainfall. However, that begins to open the door to northwest flow. Temperatures won't change much but dew points will fall significantly late Saturday and by Sunday we should be left with a sunny, but rather warm Father's Day.

Early next week the 500mb jet stream takes on this configuration which should lead to some really pleasant summer weather.

The GFS ensemble shows highs that look like this over the next 2 weeks. This may be 2-4 degrees too cool but in general those are temperatures I can live with.