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Good morning everyone... I did want to post a quick update to last night's post. While, yes, there was a northern shift in the model data overnight the general trend has kept things further south. This is crunch time, a few days away from the storm we should get better data. There will be shifts north and south and we should see in the next 24 hours where things will land.

The National Weather Service, however, has already posted Winter Storm Watches. The watch is right now just south of the Quad Cities. Of course that could still change but here's the wide view of that watch:

And here's the latest data... the European model is the furthest south and didn't change much from it's previous run:

You can still see the influence of the dry air I mentioned in my previous post... with a tight gradient from a little snow to a lot of snow.

The GFS did come north slightly:

I mentioned southeast Iowa was still at play and this is exactly what I meant. The QC and Cedar Rapids area still in the lighter totals.

The outlier is the NAM here which has come way north:

We'll see what the new data looks like today as the energy from this system is analyzed further.


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