WOW, ISN'T THAT INTERESTING...
For those of you who are winter weather enthusiasts, the EURO outlook for January through March definitely holds some serious promise. Normally, expectations would not be there for much in the way of cold (or snow) with projections of a strong El Nino, currently a given in most modeling. El Nino (the warm phase of the southern oscillation of the Pacific Ocean) is characterized by above normal sea surface temperatures. The latest outlook shows odds greater than 70% the water in the tropical Pacific warms to a point where El Nino reaches strong status this winter.
Below you can see the dynamical average of SST modeling are far above neutral through the heart of winter.
Below is a composite of the weather typically associated with a healthy El Nino. The primary storm tracks are split with a wet winter across the south due to an active sub-tropical jet. The Midwest is relatively mild and often on the dry side with limited intrusions of cold by way of the polar jet.
Where things get interesting is in the evolution of the El Nino over time. Current conditions have the warmest waters focused in the eastern third of the Pacific, just off the coast of Ecuador and NW Peru.
That is considered to be in Nino region 1+2
By winter, several key models (including the EURO), shift the warm waters westward so that they are centered closer to Nino 3.4 in the central Pacific. That is different than the conventional El Nino we are looking at now.
If the trends end up being correct, this would lead to what's considered a Modoki El Nino...one centered in the mid portion of the tropical Pacific. Modoki El Nino's are not overly common and the last significant one was in the winter of 2009-10. Here you can see the sea surface temperature anomalies associated with that event on December 31st, 2009.
That winter turned out quite impressive with the average winter temperature (December-February) in Davenport at 19.6. The 3rd coldest since 1996-1997. Snowfall was 47 inches, the second highest in the past 19 years. As you can see, a decent winter is possible in an El Nino winter if the warm water is positioned correctly, in this case the central tropical Pacific.
Based on its idea of such an occurrence, the EURO indicates a 500mb jet stream pattern this winter (January-March) that looks like this. You can see a big cold ridge over NW Canada and the mean trough up through the Ohio Valley. That has cold and snow written all over it. Seriously, that gets my attention.
So what does it all mean? First of all, nothing if the sea surface temperatures don't evolve as indicated. That is the wild card that could very well make or break what our winter turns out to be. I can't really jump on anything at this point but rest assured I will be watching sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific like a hawk the next 6 weeks. If the Modoki develops, so could a respectable winter. If not, a more traditional El Nino likely means a much kinder gentler look to the winter ahead. Guess which one I'm rooting for?
While we are at it. here's what Monday's EURO weekly control suggests for snowfall around North America over the next 46 days. What you see in the Midwest does not come until late October. If you build a snow pack that substantial by November 3rd, chances are the cold will come.
Here's the 500mb jet stream the evening of October 26th on the weeklies. That is very cold look for October should something close to that verify. That also looks very close to the winter pattern the EURO is advertising. (See 2 graphics up).
Enough with winter speculation. After a fine Monday around the region an upper air disturbance will be entering the region Tuesday morning. Ahead of it a low level jet up to 40kts will generate enough warm air advection for showers and possible storms. These are most likely across the northern half of the region and should be ongoing in parts of the area by daybreak. The bulk of the rain should be over by mid-day. There is evidence of some banding and a few spots could see localized amounts in the north greater than 1/2 inch. Here's what guidance is indicating.
The EURO
The GFS
The 3k NAM
The HRRR
Temperatures Tuesday should range from the mid 70s north to the low 80s south where less rain and some sunshine will increase readings.
Tuesday night through Friday, a pronounced southerly flow will keep temperatures mild with enough moisture in place for additional showers. These look to be light and somewhat scattered. Amounts generally should be less than 1/4 inch. Temperatures will be highly dependent on cloud cover and any showers. For the most part, highs should be in the 72-82 degree range Wednesday through Sunday.
Another round of forcing enters the region Saturday with a chance of showers and storms returning. If the EURO is right, most of these will hold off until Saturday night. Plenty of time ahead to pin down the timing.
So there you have it, a little bit of everything for everybody. It's good to be back fresh from a week away. Thanks to meteorologists Nick Stewart and Rebecca Kopelman for their usual outstanding contributions in my absence. Have a solid day and roll weather...TS
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