June 6, 2020

Over the years I have witnessed a few occasions where the remnants of a tropical storm or hurricane will sweep north from the Gulf and cause a little mischief here in the Midwest. It's not common as two things usually happen. First and foremost, the storm gets caught up in the westerlies and is steered to the east into the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. Number two. It weakens so much there's really not much energy left to cause problems outside of a g...

June 5, 2020

It's late Thursday evening and I'm sitting here in Maine watching thunderstorms go off back home in Iowa and Illinois. As a write this a number of thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are in effect. Here's what the thunderstorm clusters look like from more than 20,000 miles in space. I do miss me a good old fashioned Midwest t/storm!

While somewhat spotty, in coverage, where the storms visited they were known to dump torrential rain. A few places...

June 4, 2020

The Madden Julien Oscillation is a great tool to use when trying to establish trends. By defining areas of convection in the tropical Pacific, it then depicts temperature and precipitation trends based on analogs with similar convective set-ups.

What's neat about the MJO is that it often foretells a pattern before the models see it. That's a valuable tool to have as a forecaster. Here's a good example of how the MJO has had me very leery of a prol...

June 3, 2020

If there is one thing I have learned about spring (say April, May, and early June), it's that Great lakes enhanced "back door" cold fronts are serious players that can stop warm air in its tracks. All you need is a big high pressure situated over southern Canada and an east/northeast wind (a common sight in spring) and the table is set for some refreshingly cool, dry weather...sometimes far more than wanted!

Here's the issue. deep water just does...

June 2, 2020

Tuesday promises to be a burner around the central Midwest as some good old fashioned heat and humidity engulfs the central Midwest....corn growing weather to be sure!

HEAT INDEX VALUES

The big story today will be the combination of heat and moisture that leads to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Easily the muggiest day of the year to date..

Models have been pretty aggressive showing dew points in the low to mid 70s. I have serious reserva...

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© 2019 Terry Swails