A weather disturbance ejecting out of the southwest has brought showers to the region that will linger into Tuesday morning before tapering to drizzle and low clouds Tuesday afternoon. The dismal conditions will also be accompanied by chilly raw temperatures, which should range from 41 north to 46 north of I-80 to 46-51 south. Not one of our better efforts this fall. The upper air disturbance is not especially strong (and in a weakening state), even so a nice wing of warm air

Two weeks ago we discussed late November potential given the signals that, at the time, were just starting to pop in the teleconnections. The North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and the MJO were all starting to to shift to a colder signal come late November into December. That signal is now starting to enter the range of the longer-range model guidance, and the cold signal is starting to show up in the extended range. The upper air pattern above on Black Friday on

The signals are all pointing to a fairly active stretch of weather through the week, especially late week, as a rather strong autumn storm takes aim on the central US. The details on location, timing and exact impacts remain to be seen, but locally we will need to be on the lookout for some potentially heavy rain, relative to the time of year. Seven-day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center shows a rather active pattern across the central United States. Lo

When you add it all up, Friday was a perfect 10. The ingredients of sunshine, dry air, a slight breeze, and highs of seventy are exceptionally hard to bundle in mid-November. My guess is that the odds of that combination are at best 1 percent. The hardest element to achieve is the light winds. Typically, 70 degree days in November come with gusty south winds up to 30 mph, which tempers some of the warmth. Some say there is no such thing as perfection, I say Friday was as clos

FOOD FOR THOUGHT Let's begin today's blog with some food for thought. My climate guy, Steve Gottschalk was poking around yesterday and came up with something I deemed interesting. He decided to look at his 10 coldest Decembers to see what the previous month's temperatures were like in the hopes of coming up with some analogs that might give us a clue as to what to expect this December. His initial conclusions indicated that in the 10 coldest winters: 60% of the time July was