IT ALL ENDS WITH A BIG BANG...
A band of clouds and associated rain passed across my local area (and much of the Midwest) Monday. It was the first time in 12 days that measurable precipitation has fallen here in Cedar Rapids. Below you can see the 7 day rainfall totals around the region. Meager to say the least.
On this infra-red satellite image the strong north to south trough that brought the rain to the central U.S. is clearly evident. The red and yellow colors indicate strong subsidence and drying behind the advancing disturbance.
With winds turning to the west behind the trough Tuesday temperatures will once again surge. The Euro has highs that look like this. Many at or near records for February 21.
Wednesday looks to be even warmer and it could be a day for the history books. For sure it will be the culmination of this remarkable stretch of winter warmth for my local area and points to the north. Deep mixing, compressional heating, and full sunshine will combine to bring the possibility of all-time February warmth. As it stands now my area should see highs in the low 70s. However, with the above factors in play it's possible that some mid 70s could be found in the south. Records for the date may be crushed by 5 to 10 degrees with a good chance a number of sites will see the warmest temperatures ever measured in February!
Here's the associated temperature departures. Some 35 degrees above normal!
Eventually all good things must come to an end and a cold front will shut the party down for all but the southern Midwest on Thursday. Along with colder weather for many, the front will be the focus of a strong low pressure to move along as it stalls in Missouri and Illinois. Here's where the EURO has the low Thursday evening. Snow is developing in the cold sector with showers and storms further south.
Friday morning the storm center has advanced into the SE corner of Iowa.
By Friday evening the low has advanced to Lake Michigan and much colder air is pouring into the Midwest on strong north winds.
With the general track shown the heaviest snows would pile up from the NW half or Iowa into SE Minnesota and the NW 2/3rds of Wisconsin. The latest run of the GFS had this for snow.
Here's the EURO.
For those that do not get snow, rain should be widespread and plentiful in spots. The GFS has this for precip. (Some of this fell on Monday).
Here's what the EURO shows for the storm.
Once the system departs temperatures are going down all around the Midwest as we get a good dose of reality. Here's what the GFS has for highs Sunday.
I also have some meteograms that shows the crash for selected cities around the region.
Make no mistake about it, the next 7 days will have everything but the kitchen sink. In fact, if I had one to spare I'd throw it in! Roll weather and enjoy the diversity that is the Midwest...TS