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The set up isn't the same as last week, but the potential exists for strong to severe storms in parts of the Midwest Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be well into the 60s in Iowa and Missouri. 70s and 80s in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Dew points won't be overly impressive, but 50s and 60s will be the name of the game through the Central U.S. If these values are slightly higher, that could increase severe chances.

That combination will lead to instability. Here's the projected CAPE: values around 750 in eastern Iowa and 1000 + through Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas:

The main concern with these storms will be strong winds as they move through. There is plenty of wind shear in the atmosphere, so brief tornadoes are not out of the question, but the higher risk will be down in southern Missouri/Arkansas. Here's a look at the surface pattern and precip Monday night:

The main time frame for storms will be between 4 and 8 pm. The parameters are not nearly as high as last week (thankfully) and that's reflected in the risk by the SPC. An enhanced risk has been added in extreme SW Missouri and Arkansas.

If dew points get up a little higher and the sun gets out at all in the afternoon, the severe risk would be elevated further north. Either way, isolated strong to severe storms will likely develop in parts of the Central US Monday afternoon.


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