WAITING FOR THE WHITE GOLD....
Skies are clear and temperatures are cold as the new day dawns. Hard to believe Sunday will end with a winter storm that lasts into Monday. Here's the 7:00am temperatures. 15 here in Cedar Rapids.
The energy that will drive the storm is pushing southeast out of the northern Plains where snow is breaking out in earnest early this morning.
By Monday night the system looks like this at 500mb as the energy phases and eventually bombs out on the east coast.
Snow will enter my counties in eastern Iowa early this evening and last most of the morning Monday before tapering off. The NWS in the Quad Cities is showing this for total accumulations.
The winter storm watches that were out last night have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings or Advisories as you can see below.
Even though parts of my area could see nearly 8" of snow (3-7" in general) the NWS went with Winter Weather Advisories as snowfall accumulations were not expected to be heavy enough over a short enough period to warrant warnings. It will be close in spots and the Monday morning commute will not be pleasant area wide.
Here are the latest snowfall forecasts I have for you. First the GFS
Here's the NAM:
The NAM hi-res 4k:
The one model that disturbs me a bit is the EURO. It was drier in my area and further north on the heavier snow. It seemed to split or weaken the the lift right over eastern Iowa which is an outlier compared to other models. I'm hoping it was just a funky run but the new run won't be available until afternoon. Even with its lighter QPF it still drops 3-6" over my region.
Here's a regional perspective of the EURO for your viewing pleasure (or displeasure).