BOWLING FOR SEVERE STORMS IN DIXIE...
It's bowling season in the weather world. Spares are severe thunderstorms, tornadoes are strikes. The bowling ball that triggers them is the jet stream. While the lanes are closed around here for awhile their open across the south for the foreseeable future.
Here's an example of what I mean when I use the term bowling ball in relation to the 500mb jet stream pattern. That circular energy centered on Oklahoma is the ball sling shotting across the lanes of the central Plains. In the warm sector southeast of the low confluent flow, moisture, shear, and instability will maximize to create severe storms.
As this system travels east it will set the stage for up to 3 days of severe weather potential. The storm Prediction Center has these risk outlooks the next 3 days starting with Tuesday.
A whole series of these closed low bowling balls will roll across the south in the next couple weeks. This 16 day GFS animation shows the individual pieces of energy as they emerge off the Pacific and traverse the nation.
Eventually, as spring warmth advances further north this energy will reach the Midwest and the game will be on for us. Until then, the southward track of these systems (on average) means wet and generally cool conditions here in the central U.S.
The next system is set to arrive in the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Once again show that tight easterly circulation developing that brings enhanced cooling off Lake Michigan to most of the Midwest.
Highs on Thursday will barely be above 40. This is what the EURO has this for max's Thursday afternoon.
Within the cool air mass there will be rain. The GFS has this for totals through Friday.
That's just the beginning. The GFS comes up with this for 16 day rainfall totals. Don't get hung up on the amounts, just the trend of widespread heavy precipitation over the central Midwest.
A closer view shows amounts up to 7.4" in southwest Iowa. Let's hope that number comes down significantly in coming runs.