WARM, STORMY START TO WEEKEND
Memorial Day Weekend is typically known for summer like weather - warm, muggy air and thunderstorms. This weekend likely will likely keep the tradition going. To start, temperatures Saturday will be at the warmest levels in my area (and much of the Upper Midwest) in 9 days:
70s and 80s in the Midwest with 100s going up in Texas! Yee haw - that warmth is going to translate to instability and the potential for some severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Here's the projected CAPE Saturday afternoon:
On top of that.. check out these dew points... a lot of moisture around will make for a muggy day down in the Southern Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms will be likely from Iowa down into the Southern Plains.
A warm front will be draped through Missouri and the dry line will set up in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. That's where there will be the most instability and wind shear. Here's the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center -
The hatched area is where the potential exists for tornadoes early on in the day and then very strong winds in the afternoon and evening. Large hail will be likely as well. Severe chances go down further to the north but storms will still be possible into portions of Iowa and Illinois. Here's an interesting blurb from the Iowa Mesonet about the severe weather season thus far --
After Saturday the weather remains pretty calm through the rest of the holiday weekend and beginning of next week.